Saturday in Review 11/28/09

Another wonderful day of college football. This week we concluded the regular season for, like, 90% of the teams, and got to see just how bad the ACC is...Shall we analyze? Yes, yes we shall.

Florida State-10, #1 Florida-37

In the first round of our "just how bad is the ACC?" poll, we get to see Florida State, formerly the pride of the conference. The Seminoles, however, have not been at the top of the ACC for a considerable period of time (specifically, from 2005-present). This season, they're a mediocre team in the twilight of their legendary coach's career, and it's a bit sad that this could be the final game of the Bobby Bowden era. (Well, the Imperial Potato Company Spud Bowl might be the final game of the Bowden era, but this was the last regular season game)

This game featured a mid-level team from a mediocre conference against a top-tier team from the best conference in the country. Plus, the good team was the home team. I don't think I need to describe why it was a blowout, nor do I need to elaborate on the gory details, especially after last week's epic post. Shall we move on? Yes, I believe we shall.

ACC-meter: Not that bad

#2 Alabama-26, Auburn-21

'Bama finally faces and passes a test on the road. Some might argue that LSU was a good test for the Tide, but I beg to differ, as LSU is showing its mediocrity with an increasing frequency, and the Tide played them at home.

Now, take note that I am not belittling Alabama at all here. They beat my team fair and square in a neutral site game. But does anyone else find it odd that 'Bama played only 4 true road games this season? The season opener with Virginia Tech, the SEC Championship, and whatever bowl the Tide go to are all neutral site games. Their road games were all in-conference, and we'll now take a tally of them: Kentucky (3-5 in conference), Ole Miss (4-4), Mississippi State (3-5), and Auburn (3-5). My point? Well, even if Alabama goes undefeated and wins the national title, they have done so without facing much road adversity.

This game was their toughest, and that is predominantly due to the weird "rivalry factor" that plagues my logical, practical, statistical mind to no end (more on that to come). I mean, this is the same Auburn team that lost to Kentucky at home earlier this year. As stated prior, I'm not bashing Alabama, as their non-conference schedule included a ranked team, something Texas and Florida were too scared to do. They just happened to have a good year during a season with no tough road games. That's a fact, not some weird bias. If Alabama wins a national title, they will have earned the right to do so by winning the SEC and by beating Texas (well, probably Texas) and that's fine. You, dear readers, merely deserved to know that luck does, in fact, factor in to these sort of things.

As for the game itself...'Bama had to make a comeback against an Auburn squad that gave the Crimson Tide everything they wanted. In fact, if Auburn could have completed some passes (and managed the clock a bit better) during their final drive, we might be looking at this as the top of the upset list. As is, we'll call it a day here, and eagerly await the SEC Championship like everyone else...

#3 Texas-49, Texas A&M-39

Further proof of the "rivalry factor." Texas A&M is a barely bowl-worthy school who's having a bad year in a bad conference. Texas is a national powerhouse that's been running over opponents with abandon. Put them together, and of course you get...

A 10 point ball game with loads of excitement and a whole bunch of points. Many analysts have talked about how well Colt McCoy did in this game, and it's hard to argue with that assessment. Still, you do have to take into account the fact that Texas sealed the game not on a pass or rush, but on a 95 yard kickoff return by Marquise Goodwin. Yes, I'm aware that even without this touchdown Texas is still up by 3, but one must consider the odds (however slim) that the A&M defense could have made a stop.

People are now calling for McCoy to get the Heisman, which is a sham. McCoy has one good game, Mark Ingram has one bad game, and now McCoy's getting an award that has stopped being "Most outstanding player" and more "Best Quarterback." Since the turn of the century one non-quarterback has won the award. That one? Reggie Bush, who had to have one of the best seasons by a running back in history in order to win the thing. McCoy is an excellent quarterback, and he should have a fine career in the NFL, but I do not think he's the "outstanding" player of the year. Know who's outstanding? The Oklahoma offensive line that made Landry Jones look good on Saturday. But we all know that no offensive linemen will ever (EVER) win the Heisman.

Furthermore, this sort of crap is so routine in the Big 12 that it's hardly worth noting anymore. Games of note are games where one or both teams score fewer than 30 points. This game was exciting, but it was not well played defensively. Good luck to the Longhorns against Nebraska's defense (good) and Alabama/Florida's defense (better) during their next two games. (NOTE: This is assuming they beat Nebraska. I know most of us think it's a foregone conclusion, but who remembers this game? (<-Handy link!) Nothing in college football is a foregone conclusion.)

New Mexico-10, #4 TCU-51

I believe I said something like this would happen last week. Lemme check. Yeah, I did. Read last week's post on TCU, then let's move on to something that's at least sort of interesting...

Illinois-36, #5 Cincinnati-49

It should be unsettling to any Big East fan (none of you who read this are, but you might know someone who is. Let's just roll with it...) that the best team in your conference beat the 9th worst team in the Big 10 + 1 by only 13 points at home. Cincinnati's defense has looked quite porous in the last few weeks, and their game against Pitt looms large. Cincy isn't a bad team, and they're definitely the pride of the Big East, but one must wonder just how good the Bearcats are. The good news is that they have beaten a team that could be the Pac-10 champion if all goes well next week. The bad news is that they play in a very weak conference and have the second worst schedule of any undefeated team (sorry, Boise). As stated previously, we have the de facto Big East championship game this week, and the winner of that one will be the lone Big East team in the BCS mix.

Nevada-33, #6 Boise State-44

This is as opportune a time as any to point something out. Years ago, back when I first started following college football, there were numerous complaints about how small schools never got any love and how the big teams had a conspiracy to keep schools like Boise State and TCU and BYU out of the mix.

Thankfully, those days are in the past. Unfortunately, now that some of those schools are actually good, truly big schools won't play them, and the small schools that have vaulted to the top of the rankings are now clogging up the Top 10 by slaughtering their conference foes. This is only bad because, well, some of these teams have business in the Top 10 (this year's TCU and potentially Boise, last year's Utah) and some of them do not (the 2007 Hawaii team).

If this were basketball (a sport I dislike, for the record) then this would not be a problem, because there's about 970 games per team in a basketball season. Plus, and stop me if you knew this already, those round-ball players have a little tournament thingy that they do at the end of each season. Thus, if a small school gets ranked #8, they can prove they deserved it by playing other schools from around the country during both the regular season and during a 64-team playoff.

Football, meanwhile, only has 12 games per regular season. 90% of the football factory schools out there take 3 of those games and play the weakest opponents they can find as a "warm up" or "tune up" or, if you're Alabama, a "late season snack." Then, these teams take one game a piece and play an in-state rival, even though they run a chance of losing that game and spoiling their pay day. It's a risk that some teams will, mark my words, stop taking soon. The other 8 games for all teams not named "Notre Dame," "Army," or "Navy" are then required conference games against foes that you play because they happen to be in a conference that was formed back when your football program consisted of 22 big, angry potato farmers. If your team does well enough (read: has as many wins as losses or better), you then get to go to a bowl against a team from another area of the country with a similar record to yours.

The result? (Links to history lessons in orange) Confusing situations where we have no clear-cut national champion, years where there are 3 undefeated teams but only 2 championship spots, years where a coach says something offhand and it gets blown out of proportion and his utterly undeserving team is declared co-national champions, and years where BYU wins the national title...

Why all the random ranting here? Well, it's kind of what I do. Plus, with Boise running the table against inferior competition and against an Oregon squad that had a new coach and was on the road, we might have a situation where another not-so-great team has arrived in the BCS. I believe we already know what the sensible solution to this problem is, but if you clicked any of those links above, then you know that "sense" has nothing to do with college football...

Oh, and Boise jumped out to a 20 point lead at home in the 1st quarter. I don't care who you are, if you spot the best team in your conference 20 points at home, you will not win the game, no matter how well you play the rest of the way. Consider yourself notified, Nevada.

Georgia-30, #7 Georgia Tech-24

And now for the second installment in the "just how bad is the ACC?" poll. This installment features the best team in the conference getting beaten by an SEC school with a .500 record. Not massacred or manhandled, but a loss is, as always, a loss. To make matters worse, this game featured the "rivalry factor" which we will discuss in the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State game (prepare for a long one down there...). Georgia Tech looked decent but not great, and Georgia played one heck of a game. Still, this game could have (indeed, SHOULD have) been won by Georgia Tech. Take note that I am not ripping officiating, nor am I belittling the fact that Georgia Tech defeated my team fair and square earlier in the season. Nope, this is an example of an offensive coordinator/head coach turning their backs on their team's dynamic.

What do I mean? Well, it was the 4th quarter, and Georgia Tech was down 30-24. They got the ball back after their defense finally managed to stop Georgia for once. Georgia misses a field goal, Yellow Jackets get the ball with 3:03 left and 2 timeouts remaining. Now everyone on the planet (as well as some people who are not on the planet) knows that Georgia Tech is an option team. They run the ball. It's what they do. They begin the drive normally enough: run for 3, run for 6, run for 0 (fumble! OK, GT recovers, no harm), timeout for panic purposes, and then on 4th down a run for 8. Georgia Tech now has the ball on the Georgia 46 with 1:50 left. It's not been pretty, but you still have the timeout, the clock stops while the chains are moving, and hey, if there's one play that you can run to the outside to stop the clock, it's the option, right? Heck, in a pinch, you can even throw the ball.

Now, let's look at Georgia Tech's next play calls. Remember, there's still almost 2 minutes left in the game:
1st down: Josh Nesbitt throws an incompletion towards Demaryius Thomas. OK, I understand, you want to catch the opposition off guard. Nice call, even if it didn't work.
2nd down: Josh Nesbitt throws an incompletion towards Stephen Hill. Ooookay, this one's a bit rough on the ol' cerebellum. Your last pass didn't work, and until this drive started you've thrown only 9 times the whole game. Now you've thrown 2 incompletions in a row, and you have to run the ball to the outside. It's the only way you'll have makeable yardage on 4th down...
3rd down: Josh Nesbitt throws an incompletion towards Anthony Allen, it is broken up by the Georgia defense. ...Or not. You could do something completely illogical, nearly get picked off, and force yourself to pass on 4th down. You know, since in the Virginia Tech game you completed as many passes to the opposition as you did to your own freakin' team. Yes, this is a great idea. Remember, the downfall of having a hyperspecific offense like the triple option is this: You're not going to be as good as a "normal" football team at the aspect of the game which you ignore. Other teams can pass 4 times in a row and probably complete one. You, however, are not "other teams." I think we all know where this is going...
4th down: Josh Nesbitt throws a pass to Demaryius Thomas who grasps it for a brief moment, then drops it. Well, that was fun. I'm sure several die-hards are blaming Thomas for this failure, and I will not deny that he should have caught the pass. But it was Paul Johnson and his playcalling that sunk the Yellow Jackets. Worse, since this little Ramblin' Train Wreck in Georgia Tech was the best team in the ACC this year, it sunk the conference along with it.

ACC-meter: Really freakin' bad

#9 Pittsburgh-16, West Virginia-19

The Backyard Brawl provides us with another shocker, this time with West Virginia dealing the upset. Further proof of the "rivalry factor." Still, you read a long one up there, and even with the Big 10 schools off this week, this has been a long post. Plus, there's more interesting stuff from this week, and I still hate the couch-burning psychopathic West Virginia fans who probably held a riot to celebrate the fact that they beat one of the even semi-decent teams in the worst automatic qualifying conference! Must be tough to be in Morganton, where all there is to do is drink moonshine, watch football, and marry your sister. Yeah, I'm a bigoted jerk. Shall we move on?

PS: Apologies to no one. I still hate you, West Virginia.

#12 Oklahoma State-0, Oklahoma-27

It was awful nice of Bob Stoops to get me this Christmas present so early. Thanks, Sooners! Allow me to repay you with a really random partial analysis of your rivalry game.

Now, let's look at Oklahoma State's schedule, followed by some really angry ranting. (You've been forewarned twice now, this is your last opportunity to read the review of the UVa/Tech game.) Oklahoma State has successfully beaten one ranked opponent this season: Georgia, in their first game. They then lost to Houston and then lost to Texas a few weeks later. Now, other than those 3 games, do you know who Oklahoma State played? They played Rice, Grambling, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Colorado. Of those teams, only Texas Tech and Missouri don't suck. Yet on ESPN and the Big 12 blogs, there was a whole lot of talk about Oklahoma State heading to the Fiesta Bowl as the Big 12's second team in the BCS! At their highest point after the loss to Houston, this team got to be ranked 12th in the BCS standings, yet they were considered realistic prospects for the BCS. Now that they've lost, know who's #12 in the nation? Virginia Tech. No one's talking about them going to the BCS, and rightfully so! The Hokies have 3 losses, and have no business whatsoever in one of the 5 premier bowls. Neither did this team, whose best win is over a 7-5 Georgia team that got its signature win this week!

To further beat this dead horse, have you heard of Jeff Sagarin? He comes up with computer formulas that weigh a team's record and schedule to give an interesting (and, as this link will show you, radically different) perspective on the Top 25. Take note of where our team in question is after this loss: 31st. Let's see who their best win is...#28 Georgia, then #30 Texas Tech. Then...#46 Missouri. (Truly random note: The Western Carolina Catamounts pull in at 189th. Sagarin rankings deal with all 1-A and 1-AA teams)

So, special thanks to the Oklahoma Sooners for keeping the Cowboys firmly out of the BCS and firmly in the hunt for the Overstock.com Over-Rated Bowl featuring Oklahoma State vs. LSU.

Since it was promised above, and since you've had every opportunity to skip this section, here's a lesson on the "rivalry factor." You see, rivalry games make sense in a geographic aspect, but not a mathematical one. In a simpler time, back when teams stayed local and played opponents based solely on location in-state or near-state (LSU, in a touching throwback, still schedules Tulane and UL-Lafayette based on these guidelines), these games were played annually and because of the similar backgrounds of players, they became heated contests. Familiarity, in football, breeds dislike. Especially when the same guy you stared down in high school is now staring you down in college. Or when the guy you hated because he drove an Escalade to high school lines up opposite you, wearing a uniform that is oddly the same color as his Escalade. But enough about Southern Cal, let's move downward...

Mathematically, rivalries defy logic. Oklahoma has been, in my opinion, better than Oklahoma State this whole season. But a 27 point beatdown defied my expectations. Georgia's oft-porous defense had no business stopping Georgia Tech repeatedly, but they did. NC State surely did not belong in the same stadium as UNC, yet they defeated the Tar Heels. These sort of games simply do not make sense from the standpoint of a casual observer. Random upsets are the product of the sheer number of teams and games, but rivalries provide close games and/or upsets year in and year out. I cannot, and will not, attempt to explain the statistical aberration that rivalry games represent. I will merely state that these weird little games are what makes college football so dang fun to watch. Oh, and to prove that there's exceptions to even the rivalry rule...

#14 Virginia Tech-42, Virginia-13

Now, understand that this game followed the rivalry rule for one half. At the half, it was 14-13, and anyone who was in our house at the time will recall that I was not a happy camper. (Side note: Hi, Mom!)

Virginia Tech, however, showed up in the second half, and their defense came to play as well. The turnaround happened with about 6 minutes left in the third quarter, when the Virginia Tech defense recovered a fumble and the offense drove it in under a minute later. Ryan Williams had one heck of a day, as did UVa's quarterback Jameel Sewell, who ran for a career high in this game.

The real story of the game, however, is that UVa's coach Al Groh got the axe pretty soon after the game. We're in coach firing season as it is, and Al's is just the first head to roll in what could be a very busy off-season for movers. At least Al went out with some class, reading a poem at his closing press conference, and walking out teary-eyed from the stadium he's coached in for 9 years. He'll be missed in the state of Virginia.

Virginia Tech won their 6th straight meeting with the Cavaliers, and that's enough to make me happy. Also, they probably clinched a ticket to the Chick-Fil-A bowl. I'd be shocked if they wound up elsewhere, though stranger things have happened...

Oh, and UVa., some free coaching advice here: Charlie Weis is available!

Arkansas-30, #15 LSU-33

LSU again looks underwhelming, this time at home against a team that is not very good. Once again, if Arkansas's kicker could hit the broadside of a barn, we'd have a very different final score than this one.

LSU's not that great this year, and their 3 losses merely cement that fact. Arkansas, however, is worse than LSU, and they'll be headed toward a nowhere bowl. Serves them right for hiring the 3rd most backstabbing coach in college football: Bobby Petrino. Have fun in Paducah, Kentucky!

#17 Miami-31, South Florida-10

Well, Miami was the lone ACC team to beat their non-conference opponent. That's the good news. The bad news is that their non-conference opponent was the mediocre USF Bulls, who have played no one and who have a 3-3 record in the worst AQ conference there is. Miami's not that bad, but they've struggled against good opponents this year, and this is one of the two games they've won convincingly on the road. In short, Miami's not back just yet, but they're a whole lot further along than Notre Dame and Michigan were. My point? This one doesn't move the needle on the ACC meter, especially not in light of our next game...

#18 Clemson-17, South Carolina-34

The final part in our "just how bad is the ACC?" poll features a matchup that features two teams from the desolate wastes of South Carolina (Charleston and Myrtle Beach notwithstanding, the place sucks).

I'm glad South Carolina won this game. Unfortunately, people who don't follow the ACC mistakenly believe that Clemson, because they're in the ACC Championship game, is one of the top two teams in the conference. This is simply not true, and even if the Tigers win the Championship game this week, then it's still not true. Clemson is in a weak division of a weak conference, and they benefited from not playing Virginia Tech or UNC. Plus, they beat a total of one ranked team: Miami. Clemson's not terrible, but they are not the 2nd best team in the ACC. That is a title that belongs to Virginia Tech for a variety of reasons. One of those reasons is the non-conference schedule, but I'll move on in the interest of saving you some time.

South Carolina, meanwhile, is a middle of the road SEC team, and they beat the Tigers in every facet of the game. Please, Clemson fans, do not mention CJ Spiller, as his run back was pretty much nullified by the fact that he gained a total of 18 yards as a running back, which is his primary position. This game made the ACC look bad, and it made the ACC Championship game a pretty big joke.

ACC-meter: Horrible. Not as bad as the Big East, but dangerously close.

#21 Utah-23, #19 BYU-26

Well, Utah is still a boring state. Know who's not boring? Max Hall, BYU's quarterback, who did the blog a service after the game by giving us this tasty quote: "I don't like Utah. In fact, I hate them. I hate everything about them. I hate their program, their fans. I hate everything. It felt really good to send those guys home."

Judging from what's been said in his apology statement, his family (including his wife) were subjected to an awful lot of ridicule and torment by Utah fans last year. And you know what? I'm on his side. If you're a member of a religious sect that bans alcohol and you have beer thrown on you, I imagine that might be a bit of a big deal. At the Orange Bowl I was subjected to various taunts by Cincinnati fans who were apparently unaware that their team spent the last 3/4ths of the game losing. Fortunately I had a rather large friend of mine with me, so nothing was thrown our direction, but I can totally understand Max's angle.

People, as much as it may burst your horrific and drunken bubble, football is still just a game. If Southern Cal beat Virginia Tech by 57, the sun would still come up the next day. And I would curse the light and skip work, but my life would go on after a few days. Football fans, even rival fans, are people! And they deserve to be treated as such! Insult someone's quarterback, not his mother. Tell someone their defense sucks, don't pour beer on them. For crying out loud, if it takes a guy who writes 8 pages about football per week in his spare time to tell you this, then I, for once, am not the one with the problem! Let's move on...

UCLA-7, #20 Southern Cal-28

So, want to know how much of a jerk and hypocrite Pete Carroll is? Well, in this game, he called a timeout with about 50 seconds left so Matt Barkley could toss a 48 yard pass to score a touchdown. Great sportsmanship, Pete. Especially 2 weeks after you whined to anyone who would listen about Stanford going for two when up 27 points.

What did this gesture prove? Well, first off it proved that the Ketchup and Mustard prides itself on scores, rather than actual record. Given how far Southern Cal's fallen in the rankings, I guess they felt the need to show that they can still beat up on the 8th best team in their 10 team conference. Because, you know, that's meaningful. This touchdown was scored by starters, too. They didn't even bother with the gesture of mass subs. Maybe Southern Cal was trying to prove that they deserve to be ranked at all, since they were the only 7 win team in the country to be ranked in the top 25. For that, they can thank Jeff Sagarin's computers.

No matter how you slice it, this one was absolutely unnecessary, regardless of what Pete may have said after the game. Apparently no one ever taught the Silver Fox of Pasadena that actions speak louder than words. Hat tip to UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel who took the high road after the game. Here's hoping Arizona smashes Southern Cal this weekend.

Rice-14, #23 Houston-73

Houston boldly beats a 2-9 team by 59 points. At least they had the decency to put in their backups. Not that it mattered. The way Rice has done this year, I could have scored as Houston's QB.

#24 North Carolina-27, NC State-28

While not a part of our "how bad is the ACC?" poll, this game continues Carolina's bizarre trend of being unable to defeat awful teams. NC State's season realistically ended during the month of October when they failed to win a single game. Carolina, meanwhile, has beaten Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Boston College in Boston, and Miami at home. That's 3 of the better teams in the awful ACC. They also have a home loss to UVa, a massive blown lead against Florida State, and this head scratcher.

This one falls into the "rivalry factor" box, with NC State beating their in-state rivals to seal up a Tar Heel trek to the Meineke Car Care Bowl (No, I didn't make that one up). Good job by the Wolfpack of mustering just enough steam to beat the Tar Heels.

#25 Ole Miss-27, Mississippi State-41

I've already written, like, 8 posts on how Ole Miss didn't (and still doesn't) have any business being ranked. So, let's not dwell on that. Instead, let us briefly ponder how 41-27 looks far worse than it is. Seriously, that's just 14 points. It's just one of those scores that you look at and label a blowout, yet 28-14 is a respectable score, despite having the exact same difference between the winning team and losing team. Just something to ponder.

Now, let's briefly ponder the Bottom 95...

Wow, this week passed last week for length. I think I'm becoming a legitimate writer, a hermit, or both...Rutgers beat Louisville, thus showing that they can beat at least one of the two worst teams in their horrifically bad conference...Nebraska edged Colorado in a game that was nothing more than a warm-up for the Huskers and a send-off for the Buffaloes. The only reason that's scary? Nebraska only won by 8. They play Texas this week...Wake Forest beat Duke, meaning the Devils will not be going bowling this season...UConn sealed up bowl eligibility with a win over Syracuse. Great job, Huskies!...Missouri beat Kansas in a game that, two years ago, was for the Big 12 North Title. This year it just proved who the bigger disappointment was, with Kansas losing in the final seconds after a safety and a field goal. Enjoy the offseason, Coach Mangino!...Tennessee kept its 25-year win streak over the Kentucky Wildcats alive and well...Hawaii beat Navy, though I'm not sure you care...Oh, and Charlie Weis reinforced the already concrete fact that he's going to get canned. Notre Dame lost to Stanford by 7 in a symbolically appropriate end to the Weis Era...Coaching tip for Notre Dame: Al Groh's available!

Whew. That's all I wrote. You know, until later.