2012 National Title Game Preview

Well, we've sifted through 34 bowls, some good and some bad. We've arrived at the lone game in this crazy postseason that matters: The BCS National Title Game. Let's analyze, shall we?

#2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU

Breakdown: There's not much left to say about the regular seasons these two teams had. Both cruised through their regular season opponents, playing only one close game, that being the time they played each other. Both teams feature suffocating defenses, which complement their bruising rush offense. All the analysts offering reasons why this game will be different than the last one are trying to suck people in because of all the complaints that the last matchup between these two was "boring." This game will be more of the same, and that's not a bad thing! Well, it wouldn't be if Alabama had any business being here...

I can hear the screams of indignation from Tuscaloosa now, so follow me for a moment before you make the effigy: Does anyone remember the 2006 season? The year that Michigan and Ohio State were #1 and #2 after ripping their competition to shreds and playing one another in a pretty close game to end the season? At the end of the year that year, many people (myself included) felt that there should be a Michigan/Ohio State rematch in the championship game. We didn't get our way, and Michigan and OSU both lost their bowl games. So follow me a bit further:

LSU belongs in the national title game. They're the only undefeated team in D-1A (FBS if you hate convenience) and they've beaten 2 BCS-bowl winning teams: Oregon in a neutral site game and West Virginia on the road. Alabama, meanwhile, played only one bowl team in their nonconference schedule: the Penn State team that was beaten fairly badly by Houston. Conference play has to be taken with a grain of salt, because conferences vary wildly in strength. The SEC currently sits at 5-2 in the bowls, while the Big 12 sits at 6-2 and Conference USA is 4-1. Am I saying that the Big 12 is better than the SEC? And that Conference USA is better than both? No. What I'm saying is that Alabama's being rewarded for doing well in its conference, when conference play's value as a tool for analysis is negligible. *Sigh* If only there was a system whereby teams from multiple conferences could play one another in a series of games in a sort of single-elimination tournament, eventually using head-to-head competition to come up with a balanced means of determining a champion. Oh, well, a guy can dream.

Pick: Both these teams play the style of football I like, coupled with individuals whom I detest. Nick Saban is, in fact, the devil, while Tyrann Mathieu may be the biggest a**hole in all of sports. Moral considerations aside, I'll pick LSU based on history. I think they can repeat their win over the Tide and at least give a semblance of legitimacy to the title game. Either way, it's been a great season, and I hope you all enjoyed watching it as much as I did. Thanks for reading these posts, and I'll see y'all in the future!

Bowl Preview: Cotton Bowl and Others

Well, we've gone through 31 of the 35 bowls. Thankfully, the ACC isn't in any more of them, so I might be able to get the outcome of one correct. Given the way the last several games have gone, however, I doubt it...

Let me be frank here, however: These bowls only serve to irritate us. The Cotton Bowl is a legitimate high-level bowl matchup, so it can stay during BCS week. The other two have no excuses being this close to the national title game. Let's do this quickly:

Cotton Bowl: #8 Kansas State vs. #6 Arkansas

Arkansas is here because the BCS doesn't allow three teams from one conference into their little club. Now, I have publicly bashed the bottom three-fourths of the SEC, and I have no reason not to continue to do so, but I'd also be a total idiot to deny that LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas are all really good football teams. Arkansas certainly should have gotten an at-large selection (Michigan's. Sorry, they were still ranked lower before the game. I'll indict the Hokies in a second, just hang on.) but the rules of the BCS prohibited it. Sure, it's a stupid rule, but it's a stupid system, so why change a theme? Kansas State comes in representing a surprisingly good (6-1 this bowl season) Big 12. K-State also should have gotten a BCS spot (Virginia Tech's. There, I said it.) but I guess they don't bring enough fans or something? I don't know, but this has set up a pretty good Cotton Bowl.

Pick: Kansas State's good at keeping the ball in their hands, and I'm still not 100% sold on Arkansas. The Hogs have 2 losses this year, to the 2 teams in the title game, but K-State's going to slow down the game with a strong, methodical rushing attack. The Wildcats have played above their ability all season, let's see if they can do it one more time.

The other two minor bowls whose name no one knows or cares about:

Bowls like this, if you haven't guessed, irritate me. It's not their existence, because I believe that any true college football fan should have the opportunity to see the little teams in action, and bowl season is a great time to do that. The timing of these bowls, however, is off. As I mentioned before, the first match of ranked teams this bowl season came on January 2! After sitting through two weeks of fairly obscure teams in mediocre bowls (obviously not your team, all the others), we got some really good football these past few days. Now they want us to go back to the tiny teams? Right before the big game. No, thanks. And before I'm accused of being an elitist snob, take note that I don't blame the schools, they didn't schedule these games at absurdly late times. I blame greedy bowl committees trying to...actually I'm not sure what they're trying to accomplish with the dinky January games. I'll still watch them (because I hate myself) but that doesn't mean you should.

Picks: SMU throws past Pitt's shoddy defense, Arkansas State completes the best season in school history with a win over Northern Illinois. (PS: Please tell me in the comments section whether or not you could have named any of the four teams in these games without looking them up.)

That's all for the meaningless 34! Come back next time to see me be wrong about the national title game!

Bowl Preview: ACC BCS Blowout

So in a year during which the conference was derided for its mediocrity, the ACC wound up getting its first ever double invite to the BCS. All eyes will be on the performance of Virginia Tech and Clemson in the coming days, and it's in the best interests of the conference to win both of these games, handily if possible. Given that one of the teams involved is the team to which I pledge my fan allegiance while another one is a hated rival school from the Big East, I am almost certainly the worst person to be doing this analysis. Michigan fans, I apologize in advance. West Virginia fans, I'd apologize, but I know you can't read this anyhow.

Allstate Sugar Bowl, January 3, 2011:

#11 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Michigan

Breakdown: Look, I'm not saying that Virginia Tech deserved to be in this game. Please don't get me wrong, they almost certainly didn't. But while the fuss raised by certain sportswriters (Looking at you, Forde) may be justified, I'm shocked that no one is complaining about Michigan's presence in this game. At least Virginia Tech was in their conference championship game. Heck, if you want to split hairs, Virginia Tech's losses both came to the conference champion, 1 team that figured out a way to (badly) beat the Hokies. Michigan didn't play their conference champion. I'm just throwing that out there.

Both teams use a strong ground game, though Virginia Tech has a traditional attack using David Wilson at running back, while Michigan uses their quick and agile quarterback Denard Robinson. Neither team is exactly intimidating through the air, ranking 66th (Tech) and 90th (Michigan) in passing yardages. The teams are 8th and 9th in scoring defense, and they actually look pretty dang similar on paper. All told, this should be a good game.

Pick: Virginia Tech's got some fast corners and good linebackers who should be able to contain (not stop, but at least slow down) Robinson. If the Hokies can force him to throw, the game will be in the bag for Tech. The wildcard on the other side of the ball is Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech's QB who is a very large man, but who is also only a sophomore. He's been good in some games this year, he's been bad in others, and he's got to be sharp because Michigan will score with Robinson, and Tech has to keep pace. Either way, this game should be fun and (hopefully) better than the bloodbaths both teams suffered last season.

Discover Orange Bowl, January 4, 2011:

#15 Clemson vs. #23 West Virginia

Breakdown: The Big East champion is at least ranked this year, which is fairly remarkable since it seemed no one actually wanted to win that conference this season. West Virginia is actually the perfect representative for the Big East: undefeated against miserable nonconference foes, took a crushing loss to the good nonconference opponent, and performed relatively adequately in the conference. Clemson, on the other hand, had an excellent un-Clemson-like start, and then they turned back into Clemson in November. After smashing Virginia Tech in the title game, Clemson looks to end the season on a high note. There's not much more to add.

Pick: Clemson. The ACC isn't exactly great competition, but at least it ain't the Big East. The two teams are virtually identical in the points for/points against categories, but Clemson put together those stats against superior competition. WVU's only saving grace is this: they have the #7 pass attack in the nation and Clemson's pass defense is 39th. Frankly, I don't think it's enough.

So there you have it. After my disastrously bad January 2nd picks, I probably should have listened to my gut and then done the opposite of what my gut said. Even so, the coming days are a real make or break time for the ACC's football reputation. Should be a good time.

Bowl Preview: January 2

We've arrived at the still-largely-meaningless-but-at-least-moderately-entertaining bowls! Much like the previous post, this will be short and sweet. OK, short and bitter. Let's go!

#19 Houston/#22 Penn State: Ladies and gentlemen, here you have it--the first ranked bowl matchup of this postseason comes a full 2 weeks into bowl season. It features a team that played no one and a team that spent the entire last half of the season mired in the worst scandal college football has seen since the late 1980s. What fun. Guess I need to throw up some analysis. Uhh, Houston has only one loss and it came to the lone team they played with an OK defense. For all their faults, Penn State has a good defense. Pick: Penn State

Ohio State/Florida: Yeah, these two teams have slid very far downhill, as ESPN has helpfully pointed out roughly 9 billion times by this point. Hope Ohio State enjoys this one, since they won't be bowling next year thanks to the NCAA's nifty "delayed action" punishment policy that's worked so well at Southern Cal. Gah, this game is so mediocre that even a USC joke can't spice up the preview. Pick: Ohio State, because the bowl committees decided to prove that the SEC is the dominant conference by giving them the easiest bowl schedule this side of their nonconference schedule, and I'd like nothing more for every SEC team to get destroyed to prove the ludicrous stupidity of Alabama (not LSU, their nonconference schedule was legit) in the national title game. My picks don't show that, but that's because I'm still in the hunt to win the pick competition. (PS: Don't you dare watch a second of this football game. There are going to be 3 other, better, games going on at the same time.)

#17 Michigan State/#16 Georgia: MSU again fell just short of the BCS. Georgia recovered from early season letdowns to become a pretty darn good team. All told, this game should be better than the last game MSU played against an SEC foe. Then again (and if you clicked that link you already know this), it couldn't get much worse. Pick: Georgia. It'll be closer than last time, that doesn't mean Michigan State will win.

#20 Nebraska/#9 South Carolina: One reason I'm a major proponent of a playoff with a first round home game is due to climate. Look at a map. Nebraska is a relatively far-north state, with a cold climate, strong winds, and relatively frequent snowstorms. Football teams from Nebraska have to be built to withstand such conditions. South Carolina is a southern state with mild winters, calm breezes, and a long history of racism very little inclement weather (no, hurricanes don't count, they cancel football games when those come through, thanks). South Carolina's football teams are built for that sort of climate. This game is being played in Florida. Florida is a southern state with mild winters, calm breezes, and very little inclement weather. Gee, which of those teams do these conditions favor? Pick: If you have to look at this, clearly you didn't read the rest of this game's preview. Or just click the dang link to the predictions.

#10 Wisconsin/#5 Oregon: This game bears a ton of similarities to the previous game I posted about. Oregon isn't a southern state and I have no idea what the climate's like, but they're a team built for speed and they're playing in lovely (if a bit warm) conditions. Wisconsin is still a bruising run team built for midwestern winters. The Pac-10 and the Big-10 met in the Rose Bowl 7 times between 2000 and 2010, and the Pac-10 won 5 of those games. Climate (and cheating on Southern Cal's part) played a huge role in that lopsided decade. Expect more of the same here. Pick: Oregon's speed blows past trudging Wisconsin.

#4 Stanford/#3 Oklahoma State: I'm riding high on my correct prediction that Baylor/Washington would end with 100+ points, so I'll make another one: this game will have a total of fewer than 60 (Current over/under is 74!). Yes, both teams throw up points aplenty, but they're coming off long breaks and their offenses both heavily depend on planning and timing. Look for a relatively defensive game, similar to what we got in last year's national title match. Pick: Oklahoma State should be in the title game, if only in the name of giving us something that wasn't a rematch. No, I don't think they'd win that one, and I don't think they'll win this either. I've fired off many hateful missives about the Cowpokes' lack of defense this season, and I'll not back down now. Stanford wins because OSU can't stop Andrew Luck.

That's all for January 2nd! Come back tomorrow for the ACC BCS Blog Blowout Bash! It will be long and angry and nonsensical!

Bowl Preview: December 30-31, 2011

Travelling through the Christmas holiday doesn't lend itself well to the lifestyle of a celebrity blogger (shut up, I am!) This is being posted on a barely functioning cell phone as I sit in a Texas Roadhouse in Knoxville, Tennessee. Because I love you, dear readers. It's gonna be short. Very short:

December 30 Bowls:
BYU/Tulsa: BYU wins
Iowa State/Rutgers: Rutgers, based on better defensive stats. I'm hesitant to have picked any Big East teams.
Mississippi State/Wake Forest: Mississippi State, especially after seeing Wake get killed by Vandy earlier in the year.
Iowa/Oklahoma: Oklahoma wins anotherone of these bowls with a ranked team playing an unranked one.

December 31:
Texas A&M/Northwestern: A&M leaves the Big 12 with a win.
Georgia Tech/Utah: Georgia Tech runs (hahaitisapun) over Utah.
Cincy/Vandy: Yes, I will take a Big East team over an SEC school. Only with this combo, though. Cincinnati wins.
UCLA/Illinois: No one wins, the audience loses.
UVa/Auburn: Auburn closes the year the way they opened it, with a win. UVa sucks.

And that's all for 2011! See you all in the new year! Enjoy the celebration and don't blow off too many fingers...