Bowl Preview: The Big One

Well, we're here. 34 bowls after we started, we have finally arrived at the National Championship Game. And after gems like the Humanitarian Bowl and the Capital One Bowl, as well as slaughters in the Orange Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl, who can wait?! Ironically, despite the fact that this is the only game since December 4th that's mattered, this will be a pretty short post by my standards, as there's only one game to preview. Don't worry, the excruciating posts you can read aloud to put unruly children to sleep shall return at season's end. For now, however, let's take a look at the big show!

January 10, 2011

Tostitos BCS National Championship Game

#2 Oregon vs. #1 Auburn

How they got here: By being undefeated teams from major conferences, because there's no way that an undefeated team from a minor conference could hope to stick with a conference champion from a major conference! Wait a minute...

Should I watch this game: If you actually asked yourself this, go away. Find a blog more your speed. Here's one.

Blogger's Pick: Oregon. The Ducks are, for obvious reasons, known for their prolific offense. 1st in the country, nearly 50 points per game, blah blah blah. You know the friggin' drill. Auburn and Oregon are pretty danged similar, as you know if you've watched anything about this game on any sports network. The lone big edge that either team has is in scoring defense, where the Ducks place 12th. Each team runs the ball well, with rushing offense ranks of 4th for OU and 5th for the Tigers. It is important to note, however, that both teams also rank in the top 15 in rush defense, with Oregon at 15th and Auburn at 11th. Both sides' defenses play against running spread teams in practice, so that makes sense.

The noticeable statistical difference (aside from scoring, which isn't a bad stat, but it's not super reliable) lies in passing defense: Oregon ranks 56th, compared to Auburn's 105th. Neither team passes well, but if Oregon's defense is able to shut down Cam Newton on the ground, then Auburn will have to go to their 67th ranked air attack. Oregon should also have trouble going to the ground against Auburn's strong rush D, but the Ducks' passing attack is more well-suited as a fall-back plan than Auburn's. Throw in the fact that Oregon's defense is pretty much a stone wall in the 4th quarter, and you have a recipe to send that ugly crystal football to the Pacific Northwest.

That's all for the previews. Stay tuned for the various "year in review" articles on this and every other college football blog on the face of the planet! (PS: Bowl predictions stand at 24-10 with one more game to go!)

Bowl Preview: Cotton and Scraps...

With the majority of the bowls behind us, most eyes in the college football world will turn to Tempe, Arizona, where Oregon and Auburn are set to play in the National Title game. A few eyes will turn to Dallas, where LSU and Texas A&M will play in the second-to-last battle of ranked teams. But that's silly! That would ignore such giant games as the GoDaddy.com Bowl and the BBVA Compass Bowl. OK, so most of the games between here and the end of the season feature a mix of non-AQ teams and middling teams from other conferences, but that doesn't mean we should just ignore them. After all, come January 10 we'll have to wait 8 months for college football to start again, and we'll even be longing for matchups like...

January 6, 2011

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (OH)

How they got here: MTSU finished in second in the Sun Belt, which is actually sort of embarrassing. I guess it's not that bad, as they're one of only three teams from the conference to finish .500 or better. Still, the Blue Raiders are really not that remarkable, with the exception of their nickname, which is quite unique. (For the 2 of you who care, don't try cramming Dwight Dasher down my throat. He missed the first 4 games of the season because he took a $1,500 loan, and in the truncated year he's managed to throw as many picks and get sacked as many times as he did last season. Color me unimpressed.)

Miami got here by pulling an upset of Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship (Attendance: 12,031. Ford Field seats 65,000. Why does the MAC need a championship game?). Miami is a good story, completing a turnaround from 1-11 to 8-4 with a conference championship. The MAC Champions get to go to one of, like, 3 games, since they have no strong ties with any one bowl. Almost no one cares, but I thought I'd point that out.

Should I watch this game: Probably not. Thursday nights aren't necessarily strong TV nights, but if watching the winner of the MAC play the 3rd place Sun Belt team is your idea of a good application of your time, then you're probably the type of person who reads my blog posts. Wait...

Blogger's pick: Miami. The RedHawks have the 18th best rushing defense in the nation. MTSU's only salient feature is their running game with Dasher, and Miami should shut it down. MTSU's pass defense isn't a slouch unit (and Miami is a passing team), but I believe Miami has a slight edge on the Blue Raiders. Should be a good game, though...

January 7, 2011

AT&T Cotton Bowl

#11 LSU vs. #17 Texas A&M

How they got here: Trying to tell you how LSU wound up going 10-2 this season would be an exercise in futility. I could type and type and type (I frequently do) but unless you've followed college football this season, then you really wouldn't understand how LSU went 10-2. Heck, I did follow college football this season, and I'm still not entirely sure. So, to revive an old, unfunny gag and to give you something to look at, here's a picture of a kitten:

Texas A&M, meanwhile, had a good season in the Big 12. They missed going to the conference championship game, but they did defeat both of the teams that went to said championship game. In fact, the Aggies went on a 3 game losing streak mid-season, and some idiot said they were done. Since then, they've won 6 straight, and they look like one of the best teams in the Big 12.

Should I watch this game: Yes! Oh, goodness yes! This is the second-to-last ranked matchup of the season, meaning that we'll be stuck with inexplicably mediocre post-New Year's Day bowl games until the 10th. And after that, the season ends. So enjoy this while you can. I have also discovered, through research, a phenomenon that I am calling Miles's Law. Miles's Law is, in effect, if something weird can happen, it will.

Oh, and this game will again feature the "conflicting styles" narrative: Texas A&M is a passing team, and LSU is a rushing team LSU, Kentucky, and Auburn also have to "prove" that the SEC is still the best conference in the country. A loss here and we might start to see the national media question the SEC's dominance. (BWAHAHAHA, I almost typed that with a straight face.)

Special Note: Be sure to keep the remote handy, as this is the same night as the 1-AA (FCS, if you're a tool of the system) championship. Tune into that game as well, if only for keeping college football's sanctity intact. Plus, to keep people from believing that college is just a meat farm for the NFL, since very few of the players for Eastern Washington or Delaware are going to go to the pros.

Blogger's pick: LSU. The Big 12 has honestly looked just as bad as the Big 10 this bowl season, with two Big 12 teams losing to unranked foes and 2 of the 3 Big 12 wins coming with ranked teams beating unranked teams. Not a great sign for the Big 12 team in this one. Mind you, thanks to Miles's Law, this game will likely be a game decided by a blocked extra point or something similarly bizarre.

January 8, 2011

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pitt vs. Kentucky

How they got here: Pittsburgh started the year as the favorite to win the Big East. They finished as just another mid-level Big East team, to go along with West Virginia, UConn, Syracuse, South Florida, and Louisville. A good example of how Pitt's year went can be found in their game with Miami, a mid-level ACC team. Pitt lost that game 31-3--at home!

Kentucky's claim to fame this season is their 2-game series with Auburn and South Carolina, where they stuck within 3 of Auburn and beat the South Carolina team which had just knocked off #1 Alabama. The rest of their season was sort of blah, and the final game was a 10 point loss to Tennessee--Kentucky's 26th consecutive loss to the Volunteers.

Should I watch this game: Only because this is the last Saturday game of the year. This is a matchup of a .500 team and a slightly above .500 team. We might be in for a good one, possibly because of the fact that neither team is remarkably good or bad in any given statistical category. Meaning we might have a good one here. Or a bad one, it doesn't matter. Oh, and this is another one to watch for the sponsor. Is it sponsored by a compass-maker? We'll have to watch to find out.

Blogger's pick: Kentucky. When given a choice between an SEC team and a Big East team, always go SEC. Yes, even if it's Vandy. Plus, with Pitt's coach drama...things could get rough, really quickly.

January 9, 2011

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

#15 Nevada vs. Boston College

How they got here: Nevada won a piece of the WAC title and got to go to this one by virtue of being the "champion" thanks to having a better overall record than Hawaii and the head-to-head tiebreaker with Boise State. BC got all their losses in a 5-game streak in September and October, and they finished 4-4 in the fairly awful ACC.

Should I watch this game: Only by virtue of this being the second-to-last game in the season. That's really it. Well, that and to see some heart-wrenching and/or feel-good ads about helping to fight hunger in America.

Blogger's pick: Nevada in a close one. The Wolf Pack run well, but BC has the best rushing defense in the country. The difference will be on the other side of the ball, where Nevada's decent defense will play against Boston College's awful offense. BC stands at 109th in terms of scoring offense. Not a good sign.

That's all for the meaningless bowl games. Next time, I'll be writing one for the National Championship game. I'm at 21-9 as of this preview. Hooray?

Bowl Preview: Orange and Sugar

As I said in my previous post, New Year's Day used to be the day that mattered in college football. Now, it's just a day to enjoy lots of football. In 2011, New Year's Day also provided an opportunity for one of the major conferences in college football to get egg all over its face. But that day has passed, and we're on the downhill slide when it comes to bowl games. 28 bowls have been played thus far, meaning we only have 6 left, and 2 of those feature unranked teams. This post will run you through two of the 3 remaining BCS Bowls. Let's get started...

January 3, 2011

Discover Orange Bowl

#4 Stanford vs. #13 Virginia Tech

How they got here: Stanford got here by having an excellent season--the best in school history, in fact. The Cardinal come in with only one blemish on their record: a loss to National Championship contender Oregon. In that game, they led 21-3 early in the game, proving that Stanford is a very, very good football team. Their wins over Southern Cal and Arizona State were close, but every other victory under Stanford's belt was by at least 10 points. The lone question mark for Stanford is this: they have not beaten a single team in the current Top 25.

Virginia Tech got off to one of the worst starts in school history, then snagged a bit of redemption by winning 11 straight, with only their win over Georgia Tech coming in at under 11 points. The loss to Boise State was rough, but the James Madison loss is what hangs over the Hokies' heads in the national consciousness, right or wrong. Much like Stanford, serious questions must be raised about the overall strength of Virginia Tech's wins, as they've beaten just one currently ranked team: #23 Florida State. Oh, and Tech "got here" by winning the ACC, thus guaranteeing their spot in the Orange Bowl.

Should I watch this game: Yes. ESPN's been touting the quarterback matchup, but it will be more interesting to see how well Andrew Luck throws the ball against Virginia Tech's secondary. Both teams run the ball well (Stanford: 17th, Virginia Tech 18th), but Virginia Tech's normally three-headed attack will be down to one for the first quarter: Ryan Williams is questionable for the game, and David Wilson has been suspended for the first quarter because he missed bed check. If Virginia Tech can get through the first quarter OK, we'll be in for a good game.

Blogger's pick: Stanford. Understand that I pick games based on who I think will win. This isn't what I hope happens, but it's what I think will happen. Stanford's offensive line is amazing, and Virginia Tech's relatively young linebacking corps may have trouble stopping the run, which will open up Stanford's list of options to include running, play-action, and straight pass plays. Look for a fairly close game, but Stanford will likely take this one.

January 4, 2010

Allstate Sugar Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #8 Arkansas

How they got here: Ohio State finished in a 3-way tie atop the Big 10, dropping only their road game against Wisconsin. Mind you, that means they dropped 1/4th of their road games, but I digress. Because Ohio State was ranked higher than Wisconsin and Michigan State, they were guaranteed a spot in the BCS, and they very nearly wound up as conference "champs" by sneaking past Wisconsin in the BCS rankings. Fortunately, common sense narrowly prevailed, and the Buckeyes were not sent to Pasadena. Instead, they drew an Arkansas team that had a fairly quiet year for a 10-2 SEC team. Seriously, without looking can you name me an Arkansas player other than QB Ryan Mallett? It's not that the Razorbacks deserve to be ignored, they just have the misfortune of playing in a season with the Oregon blur offense, the Cam Newton affair, the Carolina scandal, the Ohio State mess, Boise State's rise and fall, the decline of Texas football, and a host of other stories. There just hasn't been time for Arkansas in the spotlight. All that aside, Arkansas has had an impressive season, with wins over 4 currently ranked schools, which is impressive compared to the 0 that Ohio State's beaten.

Should I watch this game: Yes, if only for the crushing Big 10/SEC subplot that will be rammed down your throat whether YOU like it or not! Seriously, we get it, ESPN. Ohio State hasn't beaten an SEC team in a really long time. The Big 10's having a down bowl season (well, at least a down January thus far). You think at this point anyone who follows college football won't know that? Do you think anyone who doesn't follow college football will care? Oh, and this game will feature a good quarterback battle, with the "traditional" Ryan Mallett playing against the scrambling Terrelle Pryor. And though I mocked it above, it will be interesting to see if the Big 10 can salvage a 3-5 bowl record. If they finish 2-6 with wins over only Baylor and Missouri, then Jim Delaney and Gordon Gee and their toadies will really be exposed as cowards, ducking a playoff so other teams won't have all the fun after the Big 10 gets knocked out. Just one last stat to provide you with a reason to watch this game: the Big 10 is currently 0-3 against the SEC. The much-maligned ACC is 2-0 (counting the questionable Music City Bowl...).

Blogger's pick: It's hard to do this, but I'll go with Ohio State. My confidence in this pick might have been high at one point, but not after the New Year's Day disaster. OSU's defense is the 3rd best scoring defense in the country, and they should at least give Mallett a few problems. Arkansas's D has been porous at times (that 65-43 game against Auburn comes to mind), and Terrelle Pryor can hang up points quite consistently. The hyper-conservative OSU offense will give Arkansas little opportunity for takeaways, and I think the Big 10 salvages a 3-5 bowl record in a narrow Buckeye victory.

That's all for right now. As of New Year's Day, I'm 19-9. Woo?