2012 National Title Game Preview

Well, we've sifted through 34 bowls, some good and some bad. We've arrived at the lone game in this crazy postseason that matters: The BCS National Title Game. Let's analyze, shall we?

#2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU

Breakdown: There's not much left to say about the regular seasons these two teams had. Both cruised through their regular season opponents, playing only one close game, that being the time they played each other. Both teams feature suffocating defenses, which complement their bruising rush offense. All the analysts offering reasons why this game will be different than the last one are trying to suck people in because of all the complaints that the last matchup between these two was "boring." This game will be more of the same, and that's not a bad thing! Well, it wouldn't be if Alabama had any business being here...

I can hear the screams of indignation from Tuscaloosa now, so follow me for a moment before you make the effigy: Does anyone remember the 2006 season? The year that Michigan and Ohio State were #1 and #2 after ripping their competition to shreds and playing one another in a pretty close game to end the season? At the end of the year that year, many people (myself included) felt that there should be a Michigan/Ohio State rematch in the championship game. We didn't get our way, and Michigan and OSU both lost their bowl games. So follow me a bit further:

LSU belongs in the national title game. They're the only undefeated team in D-1A (FBS if you hate convenience) and they've beaten 2 BCS-bowl winning teams: Oregon in a neutral site game and West Virginia on the road. Alabama, meanwhile, played only one bowl team in their nonconference schedule: the Penn State team that was beaten fairly badly by Houston. Conference play has to be taken with a grain of salt, because conferences vary wildly in strength. The SEC currently sits at 5-2 in the bowls, while the Big 12 sits at 6-2 and Conference USA is 4-1. Am I saying that the Big 12 is better than the SEC? And that Conference USA is better than both? No. What I'm saying is that Alabama's being rewarded for doing well in its conference, when conference play's value as a tool for analysis is negligible. *Sigh* If only there was a system whereby teams from multiple conferences could play one another in a series of games in a sort of single-elimination tournament, eventually using head-to-head competition to come up with a balanced means of determining a champion. Oh, well, a guy can dream.

Pick: Both these teams play the style of football I like, coupled with individuals whom I detest. Nick Saban is, in fact, the devil, while Tyrann Mathieu may be the biggest a**hole in all of sports. Moral considerations aside, I'll pick LSU based on history. I think they can repeat their win over the Tide and at least give a semblance of legitimacy to the title game. Either way, it's been a great season, and I hope you all enjoyed watching it as much as I did. Thanks for reading these posts, and I'll see y'all in the future!

Bowl Preview: Cotton Bowl and Others

Well, we've gone through 31 of the 35 bowls. Thankfully, the ACC isn't in any more of them, so I might be able to get the outcome of one correct. Given the way the last several games have gone, however, I doubt it...

Let me be frank here, however: These bowls only serve to irritate us. The Cotton Bowl is a legitimate high-level bowl matchup, so it can stay during BCS week. The other two have no excuses being this close to the national title game. Let's do this quickly:

Cotton Bowl: #8 Kansas State vs. #6 Arkansas

Arkansas is here because the BCS doesn't allow three teams from one conference into their little club. Now, I have publicly bashed the bottom three-fourths of the SEC, and I have no reason not to continue to do so, but I'd also be a total idiot to deny that LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas are all really good football teams. Arkansas certainly should have gotten an at-large selection (Michigan's. Sorry, they were still ranked lower before the game. I'll indict the Hokies in a second, just hang on.) but the rules of the BCS prohibited it. Sure, it's a stupid rule, but it's a stupid system, so why change a theme? Kansas State comes in representing a surprisingly good (6-1 this bowl season) Big 12. K-State also should have gotten a BCS spot (Virginia Tech's. There, I said it.) but I guess they don't bring enough fans or something? I don't know, but this has set up a pretty good Cotton Bowl.

Pick: Kansas State's good at keeping the ball in their hands, and I'm still not 100% sold on Arkansas. The Hogs have 2 losses this year, to the 2 teams in the title game, but K-State's going to slow down the game with a strong, methodical rushing attack. The Wildcats have played above their ability all season, let's see if they can do it one more time.

The other two minor bowls whose name no one knows or cares about:

Bowls like this, if you haven't guessed, irritate me. It's not their existence, because I believe that any true college football fan should have the opportunity to see the little teams in action, and bowl season is a great time to do that. The timing of these bowls, however, is off. As I mentioned before, the first match of ranked teams this bowl season came on January 2! After sitting through two weeks of fairly obscure teams in mediocre bowls (obviously not your team, all the others), we got some really good football these past few days. Now they want us to go back to the tiny teams? Right before the big game. No, thanks. And before I'm accused of being an elitist snob, take note that I don't blame the schools, they didn't schedule these games at absurdly late times. I blame greedy bowl committees trying to...actually I'm not sure what they're trying to accomplish with the dinky January games. I'll still watch them (because I hate myself) but that doesn't mean you should.

Picks: SMU throws past Pitt's shoddy defense, Arkansas State completes the best season in school history with a win over Northern Illinois. (PS: Please tell me in the comments section whether or not you could have named any of the four teams in these games without looking them up.)

That's all for the meaningless 34! Come back next time to see me be wrong about the national title game!

Bowl Preview: ACC BCS Blowout

So in a year during which the conference was derided for its mediocrity, the ACC wound up getting its first ever double invite to the BCS. All eyes will be on the performance of Virginia Tech and Clemson in the coming days, and it's in the best interests of the conference to win both of these games, handily if possible. Given that one of the teams involved is the team to which I pledge my fan allegiance while another one is a hated rival school from the Big East, I am almost certainly the worst person to be doing this analysis. Michigan fans, I apologize in advance. West Virginia fans, I'd apologize, but I know you can't read this anyhow.

Allstate Sugar Bowl, January 3, 2011:

#11 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Michigan

Breakdown: Look, I'm not saying that Virginia Tech deserved to be in this game. Please don't get me wrong, they almost certainly didn't. But while the fuss raised by certain sportswriters (Looking at you, Forde) may be justified, I'm shocked that no one is complaining about Michigan's presence in this game. At least Virginia Tech was in their conference championship game. Heck, if you want to split hairs, Virginia Tech's losses both came to the conference champion, 1 team that figured out a way to (badly) beat the Hokies. Michigan didn't play their conference champion. I'm just throwing that out there.

Both teams use a strong ground game, though Virginia Tech has a traditional attack using David Wilson at running back, while Michigan uses their quick and agile quarterback Denard Robinson. Neither team is exactly intimidating through the air, ranking 66th (Tech) and 90th (Michigan) in passing yardages. The teams are 8th and 9th in scoring defense, and they actually look pretty dang similar on paper. All told, this should be a good game.

Pick: Virginia Tech's got some fast corners and good linebackers who should be able to contain (not stop, but at least slow down) Robinson. If the Hokies can force him to throw, the game will be in the bag for Tech. The wildcard on the other side of the ball is Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech's QB who is a very large man, but who is also only a sophomore. He's been good in some games this year, he's been bad in others, and he's got to be sharp because Michigan will score with Robinson, and Tech has to keep pace. Either way, this game should be fun and (hopefully) better than the bloodbaths both teams suffered last season.

Discover Orange Bowl, January 4, 2011:

#15 Clemson vs. #23 West Virginia

Breakdown: The Big East champion is at least ranked this year, which is fairly remarkable since it seemed no one actually wanted to win that conference this season. West Virginia is actually the perfect representative for the Big East: undefeated against miserable nonconference foes, took a crushing loss to the good nonconference opponent, and performed relatively adequately in the conference. Clemson, on the other hand, had an excellent un-Clemson-like start, and then they turned back into Clemson in November. After smashing Virginia Tech in the title game, Clemson looks to end the season on a high note. There's not much more to add.

Pick: Clemson. The ACC isn't exactly great competition, but at least it ain't the Big East. The two teams are virtually identical in the points for/points against categories, but Clemson put together those stats against superior competition. WVU's only saving grace is this: they have the #7 pass attack in the nation and Clemson's pass defense is 39th. Frankly, I don't think it's enough.

So there you have it. After my disastrously bad January 2nd picks, I probably should have listened to my gut and then done the opposite of what my gut said. Even so, the coming days are a real make or break time for the ACC's football reputation. Should be a good time.

Bowl Preview: December 30-31, 2011

Travelling through the Christmas holiday doesn't lend itself well to the lifestyle of a celebrity blogger (shut up, I am!) This is being posted on a barely functioning cell phone as I sit in a Texas Roadhouse in Knoxville, Tennessee. Because I love you, dear readers. It's gonna be short. Very short:

December 30 Bowls:
BYU/Tulsa: BYU wins
Iowa State/Rutgers: Rutgers, based on better defensive stats. I'm hesitant to have picked any Big East teams.
Mississippi State/Wake Forest: Mississippi State, especially after seeing Wake get killed by Vandy earlier in the year.
Iowa/Oklahoma: Oklahoma wins anotherone of these bowls with a ranked team playing an unranked one.

December 31:
Texas A&M/Northwestern: A&M leaves the Big 12 with a win.
Georgia Tech/Utah: Georgia Tech runs (hahaitisapun) over Utah.
Cincy/Vandy: Yes, I will take a Big East team over an SEC school. Only with this combo, though. Cincinnati wins.
UCLA/Illinois: No one wins, the audience loses.
UVa/Auburn: Auburn closes the year the way they opened it, with a win. UVa sucks.

And that's all for 2011! See you all in the new year! Enjoy the celebration and don't blow off too many fingers...

Bowl Preview: December 26-29

Merry Christmas (or time thereabouts), dear readers. It is time to run down the second set of bowl games, inconsequential though they are. Because the bowls were forced to split up between December 30 and 31st and January 2nd (Thanks, NFL. I'd hate for college football to have a tradition that lasts. You guys enjoy your prima donnas and their mic hogging antics), those days will get their own entries. This post will tackle the last round of utterly meaningless bowls, providing a convenient segue to December 29, when we get to watch the mostly meaningless bowls!

December 26, 2011

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Missouri vs. North Carolina

Breakdown: Ugh. Missouri and UNC got here by being only slightly better than mediocre. Two 7-5 teams from AQ conferences battling it out in a bowl that will feature some future NFL players. Mind you that whole "We have more draft picks than you" line is the sort of thing that Miami fans say while condoling themselves that their players are "better" because they will play in the NFL. That's great, they still haven't beaten Virginia Tech since 2008. What was this post about? Oh, right, this bowl that no one's going to watch.

Should I watch this game? If you're a Carolina fan and you want me to stop making fun of you, sure. I actually would like to see what the numbers are on how many people watch this game and how many people watch the Tar Heel basketball team pummel Elon on the 29th. I'd be willing to bet the numbers are similar. Also, Mizzou fans should watch this because there's nothing else to do the day after Christmas but fight the return lines. If you don't fall into those categories, then just go out and fight the return lines...

Blogger's Pick: Mizzou, based solely on their competition. The teams' scoring defenses have identical numbers, but Carolina plays in the ACC, while Mizzouri plays in the offense-laden Big 12. I'll give the Tigers the nod for now.

December 27, 2011

Little Caesars Bowl

Western Michigan vs. Purdue

Breakdown: 7-5 MAC team against a 6-6 Big 10 team? Wow. People were knocking the FIU/Marshall game as the worst of the season, but I think this one gives it a run for its money.

Should I watch this game? No. It's 4:30, and it's a Tuesday game. Most of you will be returning to work, is it really worth getting fired or fussed at to watch this game?

Blogger's Pick: Yeesh, do I have to? Fine, I pick Purdue. They beat some stronger (I guess) teams. Purdue beat 2 bowl bound teams, which is 2 more than Western Michigan.

Belk Bowl

Louisville vs. NC State

Breakdown: Basically the same as the above summary of the Mizzou/UNC game, minus the "future NFL prospects" line and the weird rant about Miami. Short version is that we have another matchup of 7-5 teams that wouldn't be happening if we had a decent number of bowls and/or a playoff.

Should I watch this game? Eh...it's entertainment after what could be a long day of work. Sure, go ahead, just don't expect world beating football.

Blogger's Pick: Louisville is a team on the up and up. 2 years ago they were 4-8. Last year they were 7-6, and this year they could go 8-5. Charlie Strong's building a very good team in Louisville, and the Cardinals could easily be a threat next season not just in the Big East, but on the national level as well.

December 28, 2011

Military Bowl--Presented by Northrop Grumman

Toledo vs. Air Force

Breakdown: Two non-AQ teams meet in an intriguing matchup. Air Force runs the ball in an option that's second only to Army's in rush yards. Toledo's offense is pretty well balanced, and they can score points in bundles, but their defenses are both sort of "eh." There should be points, if you're into that sort of thing.

Should I watch this game? Regular readers know that I love watching the option, so I'd recommend it for that reason alone. If you want a more in-depth reason, the pairing of Air Force's #2 rush offense against Toledo's #28 rush defense has potential to be intriguing. Again, though, mid-day game during the week, so you may want to just TiVo this one.

Blogger's Pick: Should be close, very much has the potential to be a tossup. Let's go with Air Force in this one, I think their rushing attack can get it done in the end.

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

California vs. #24 Texas

Breakdown: Almost every preview of this game I've read has said something about how both these teams had "disappointing seasons." Now, that certainly holds true for the Gator Bowl's Ohio State/Florida matchup, but I'm not sure if it applies to both of these schools. Really, how many times have we thought of Cal as a legitimate threat in the Pac-10/12? They live perpetually under the shadow of USC, and now they have to compete with Oregon and Stanford. Heck, they usually have to compete with mid-level teams like Washington and UCLA to even make a bowl game. Taking that into consideration, this wasn't disappointing for the Golden Bears. Texas...yeah, they've gotten used to good seasons, but they came back from a 5-7 year last year, so it isn't all bad. At least the record's improving.

Should I watch this game? Sure. Nothing too egregious or boring here. Not great teams, not terrible either. Solidly in the middle. That, and this Holiday Bowl isn't a Washington/Nebraska match, meaning it's at least something different.

Blogger's Pick: I'm not sure I've gotten a Texas game right all year. They very well may have cost me the win in our picks competition, and I'm not 100% positive on who to pick on this one. I'll go with some logic: the top few teams of the Pac-12 was quite good. The bottom half was utterly awful. The Big 12 looked better all season top-to-bottom, so I'll go with the Big 12 team: Texas wins because their running game slows stuff down. No confidence behind that pick.

December 29, 2011

Champs Sports Bowl

Notre Dame vs. Florida State

Breakdown: Notre Dame makes the second stop on their "once relevant schools from Florida" tour, which pitted the Irish against Miami (Still not in a bowl this season. Can't emphasize that enough.) last year and takes them against the Seminoles this season. At least Florida State doesn't still entertain delusions of grandeur. Both schools had seasons that bear little to no mention, except to say that they both failed to live up to the "We're back!" expectations of their fan bases. Sorry to waste your time.

Should I watch this? Oh, why not? Both teams seem to be improving, and they might actually be back next season. You heard it hear first: a noncommittal statement by a man who is frequently wrong.

Blogger's Pick: As mediocre as they've been in recent years, the Florida State Seminoles still play dang fine defense. This year they have the #4 scoring defense in the country, and I can't bet against that.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Washington vs. #12 Baylor

Breakdown: Washington finds itself again matched up against a ranked Big 12 foe. Hey, it worked well for them last time. Neither team has a really jaw-dropping record, but Baylor's incredible quarterback Robert Griffin III took home the Heisman this year, thereby proving that the committee can, on occasion, get things right and not just hand the thing to whichever quarterback ESPN christens as the Heisman winner in September. Good on you, Downtown Athletic Club.

Should I watch this game? If you have any doubt on why Robert Griffin was chosen, then yes. The man is an awesome football player. If you like high scoring football, you might want to tune in, too. Baylor's offense is a high-powered attack, and Washington's defense is pretty bad. Washington's offense isn't superpowered, but Baylor's defense is even worse than Washington's. Points aplenty in all likelihood.

Blogger's Pick: Ignoring the "Heisman curse" and other such nonsense, I'm going to go against my usual grain and pick the stronger offense: Baylor wins in a game with more than 100 combined points.

That's all for this round. I'll be back with the big days soon! Until then, enjoy your time off! Current bowl picks standing: 4-3.

Bowl Preview 2011: Week One (Late Edition)

As is my misguided custom, the time has arrived once more for me to predict college football's postseason games.

So there's 35 bowls and only one that matters. It's not the most pleasant of postseasons, but hey, at least we get more college football, much of it consisting of teams we haven't gotten to see all season. The only problem is, some of those teams have stayed under the radar for a freakin' reason.

Let's put that another way: I'm posting this late, as the 2nd of the 35 bowls is already rolling. So the first 3 games won't be on this list because it'd be stupid for me to write a "prediction" about something that's already happened/is happening. Now, ask yourself, if I hadn't admitted to skipping the first three, would you have noticed? If you answered "yes," then why aren't you a writer on our blog?

OK, enough intro, let's get to the rambling!

December 20, 2011

Beef 'o' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg

Florida International vs. Marshall

Breakdown: If you need proof that there's too many dang bowls, look no further. FIU at least has the record to deserve a bowl game (an 8-4 record compared to Marshall's 6-6) but I don't think that anyone outside of Huntington and Miami is clamoring for tickets. Admittedly, FIU is in a bowl, unlike another school from Miami I could mention...

Enough rambling, though, let's analyze the matchup. FIU is a team whose only salient statistical characteristic is their scoring defense, which is 16th in the country. That's better than Marshall, which has no salient statistical category. Some might argue that's because Marshall is in a better conference. I'm gonna argue it's because they're a mediocre team.

Should I watch this? Not really. Get some last second Christmas shopping done.

Blogger's Pick: Florida International. Defense uber alles.

December 21, 2011

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

#18 TCU vs. Louisiana Tech

Breakdown: Using the final BCS standings as our measuring stick, this is the first of seven bowls matching an unranked team with a ranked one. Because, y'know, that's the purpose of the bowl system, to give us the sort of matchups we all got sick of in September. I digress. It's been a down year for TCU, but they do have a critical win over Boise State that locked the Broncos out of the BCS. TCU's two losses were very close games, and the result is that they get locked in what has typically been a bowl given as cold comfort to its participants. Louisiana Tech started out extraordinarily slow and worked their way to a respectable 8-4 season.

Should I watch this game? Yeah, sure. Louisiana Tech has the potential to pull off an exciting upset, or TCU could win by 40. Might as well watch and find out.

Blogger's Pick: Louisiana State won the WAC the year after Boise State finally moved out. TCU beat Boise State. I'm going with the latter. TCU wins in a bloodbath.

December 22, 2011

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Arizona State vs. #7 Boise State

Breakdown: More than the BCS ever will be, this right here is proof of college football elitism. Boise State is a one loss team from a minor conference that stumbled once against their only realistic competition for the conference title. Arizona State is a team from a major conference that hasn't won a game since October 29, and hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since October 8. And they're in the same bowl. Yeah, you have fun unraveling that. ASU's offense is probably on par with Boise's, when you consider their quality of competition, but the Arizona State defense has been pretty porous. Oh, and ASU fired their coach well before this game. That won't help.

Should I watch this game? Yeah, it's Kellen Moore's last. Watch it and applaud what might be the last game for one of the best "little guy" QB's ever.

Blogger's Pick: I hope their placement here made Boise mad: Broncos win in a runaway.

December 24, 2011

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Nevada vs. #21 Southern Miss

Breakdown: Nevada opened up with a slew of 3 tough teams in their first four games. Aaaaaand they lost all 3 to open the season 1-3. Then they won 5 straight, then lost 2 of their last 3 before smashing Idaho in the season finale. Southern Miss was simply "the other" team in Conference USA behind Houston, until they met the Cougars in the C-USA championship and beat them. Southern Miss is well-rounded, pairing their high scoring with good defense. Nevada runs out of the pistol, leading to middling scoring stats, but shortening the game. This actually has potential to be a pretty good ball game.

Should I watch this game? Yes. Should be close, and this may be the most interesting matchup of the first bowl week. Don't stay up too late, mind you, or Santa will skip your house.

Blogger's pick: When in doubt, pick the team with a better defense. Southern Miss takes the win.

That's all for week one! Come back later to mock the foolishness of these picks!

Bowl Preview: The Big One

Well, we're here. 34 bowls after we started, we have finally arrived at the National Championship Game. And after gems like the Humanitarian Bowl and the Capital One Bowl, as well as slaughters in the Orange Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl, who can wait?! Ironically, despite the fact that this is the only game since December 4th that's mattered, this will be a pretty short post by my standards, as there's only one game to preview. Don't worry, the excruciating posts you can read aloud to put unruly children to sleep shall return at season's end. For now, however, let's take a look at the big show!

January 10, 2011

Tostitos BCS National Championship Game

#2 Oregon vs. #1 Auburn

How they got here: By being undefeated teams from major conferences, because there's no way that an undefeated team from a minor conference could hope to stick with a conference champion from a major conference! Wait a minute...

Should I watch this game: If you actually asked yourself this, go away. Find a blog more your speed. Here's one.

Blogger's Pick: Oregon. The Ducks are, for obvious reasons, known for their prolific offense. 1st in the country, nearly 50 points per game, blah blah blah. You know the friggin' drill. Auburn and Oregon are pretty danged similar, as you know if you've watched anything about this game on any sports network. The lone big edge that either team has is in scoring defense, where the Ducks place 12th. Each team runs the ball well, with rushing offense ranks of 4th for OU and 5th for the Tigers. It is important to note, however, that both teams also rank in the top 15 in rush defense, with Oregon at 15th and Auburn at 11th. Both sides' defenses play against running spread teams in practice, so that makes sense.

The noticeable statistical difference (aside from scoring, which isn't a bad stat, but it's not super reliable) lies in passing defense: Oregon ranks 56th, compared to Auburn's 105th. Neither team passes well, but if Oregon's defense is able to shut down Cam Newton on the ground, then Auburn will have to go to their 67th ranked air attack. Oregon should also have trouble going to the ground against Auburn's strong rush D, but the Ducks' passing attack is more well-suited as a fall-back plan than Auburn's. Throw in the fact that Oregon's defense is pretty much a stone wall in the 4th quarter, and you have a recipe to send that ugly crystal football to the Pacific Northwest.

That's all for the previews. Stay tuned for the various "year in review" articles on this and every other college football blog on the face of the planet! (PS: Bowl predictions stand at 24-10 with one more game to go!)

Bowl Preview: Cotton and Scraps...

With the majority of the bowls behind us, most eyes in the college football world will turn to Tempe, Arizona, where Oregon and Auburn are set to play in the National Title game. A few eyes will turn to Dallas, where LSU and Texas A&M will play in the second-to-last battle of ranked teams. But that's silly! That would ignore such giant games as the GoDaddy.com Bowl and the BBVA Compass Bowl. OK, so most of the games between here and the end of the season feature a mix of non-AQ teams and middling teams from other conferences, but that doesn't mean we should just ignore them. After all, come January 10 we'll have to wait 8 months for college football to start again, and we'll even be longing for matchups like...

January 6, 2011

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (OH)

How they got here: MTSU finished in second in the Sun Belt, which is actually sort of embarrassing. I guess it's not that bad, as they're one of only three teams from the conference to finish .500 or better. Still, the Blue Raiders are really not that remarkable, with the exception of their nickname, which is quite unique. (For the 2 of you who care, don't try cramming Dwight Dasher down my throat. He missed the first 4 games of the season because he took a $1,500 loan, and in the truncated year he's managed to throw as many picks and get sacked as many times as he did last season. Color me unimpressed.)

Miami got here by pulling an upset of Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship (Attendance: 12,031. Ford Field seats 65,000. Why does the MAC need a championship game?). Miami is a good story, completing a turnaround from 1-11 to 8-4 with a conference championship. The MAC Champions get to go to one of, like, 3 games, since they have no strong ties with any one bowl. Almost no one cares, but I thought I'd point that out.

Should I watch this game: Probably not. Thursday nights aren't necessarily strong TV nights, but if watching the winner of the MAC play the 3rd place Sun Belt team is your idea of a good application of your time, then you're probably the type of person who reads my blog posts. Wait...

Blogger's pick: Miami. The RedHawks have the 18th best rushing defense in the nation. MTSU's only salient feature is their running game with Dasher, and Miami should shut it down. MTSU's pass defense isn't a slouch unit (and Miami is a passing team), but I believe Miami has a slight edge on the Blue Raiders. Should be a good game, though...

January 7, 2011

AT&T Cotton Bowl

#11 LSU vs. #17 Texas A&M

How they got here: Trying to tell you how LSU wound up going 10-2 this season would be an exercise in futility. I could type and type and type (I frequently do) but unless you've followed college football this season, then you really wouldn't understand how LSU went 10-2. Heck, I did follow college football this season, and I'm still not entirely sure. So, to revive an old, unfunny gag and to give you something to look at, here's a picture of a kitten:

Texas A&M, meanwhile, had a good season in the Big 12. They missed going to the conference championship game, but they did defeat both of the teams that went to said championship game. In fact, the Aggies went on a 3 game losing streak mid-season, and some idiot said they were done. Since then, they've won 6 straight, and they look like one of the best teams in the Big 12.

Should I watch this game: Yes! Oh, goodness yes! This is the second-to-last ranked matchup of the season, meaning that we'll be stuck with inexplicably mediocre post-New Year's Day bowl games until the 10th. And after that, the season ends. So enjoy this while you can. I have also discovered, through research, a phenomenon that I am calling Miles's Law. Miles's Law is, in effect, if something weird can happen, it will.

Oh, and this game will again feature the "conflicting styles" narrative: Texas A&M is a passing team, and LSU is a rushing team LSU, Kentucky, and Auburn also have to "prove" that the SEC is still the best conference in the country. A loss here and we might start to see the national media question the SEC's dominance. (BWAHAHAHA, I almost typed that with a straight face.)

Special Note: Be sure to keep the remote handy, as this is the same night as the 1-AA (FCS, if you're a tool of the system) championship. Tune into that game as well, if only for keeping college football's sanctity intact. Plus, to keep people from believing that college is just a meat farm for the NFL, since very few of the players for Eastern Washington or Delaware are going to go to the pros.

Blogger's pick: LSU. The Big 12 has honestly looked just as bad as the Big 10 this bowl season, with two Big 12 teams losing to unranked foes and 2 of the 3 Big 12 wins coming with ranked teams beating unranked teams. Not a great sign for the Big 12 team in this one. Mind you, thanks to Miles's Law, this game will likely be a game decided by a blocked extra point or something similarly bizarre.

January 8, 2011

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pitt vs. Kentucky

How they got here: Pittsburgh started the year as the favorite to win the Big East. They finished as just another mid-level Big East team, to go along with West Virginia, UConn, Syracuse, South Florida, and Louisville. A good example of how Pitt's year went can be found in their game with Miami, a mid-level ACC team. Pitt lost that game 31-3--at home!

Kentucky's claim to fame this season is their 2-game series with Auburn and South Carolina, where they stuck within 3 of Auburn and beat the South Carolina team which had just knocked off #1 Alabama. The rest of their season was sort of blah, and the final game was a 10 point loss to Tennessee--Kentucky's 26th consecutive loss to the Volunteers.

Should I watch this game: Only because this is the last Saturday game of the year. This is a matchup of a .500 team and a slightly above .500 team. We might be in for a good one, possibly because of the fact that neither team is remarkably good or bad in any given statistical category. Meaning we might have a good one here. Or a bad one, it doesn't matter. Oh, and this is another one to watch for the sponsor. Is it sponsored by a compass-maker? We'll have to watch to find out.

Blogger's pick: Kentucky. When given a choice between an SEC team and a Big East team, always go SEC. Yes, even if it's Vandy. Plus, with Pitt's coach drama...things could get rough, really quickly.

January 9, 2011

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

#15 Nevada vs. Boston College

How they got here: Nevada won a piece of the WAC title and got to go to this one by virtue of being the "champion" thanks to having a better overall record than Hawaii and the head-to-head tiebreaker with Boise State. BC got all their losses in a 5-game streak in September and October, and they finished 4-4 in the fairly awful ACC.

Should I watch this game: Only by virtue of this being the second-to-last game in the season. That's really it. Well, that and to see some heart-wrenching and/or feel-good ads about helping to fight hunger in America.

Blogger's pick: Nevada in a close one. The Wolf Pack run well, but BC has the best rushing defense in the country. The difference will be on the other side of the ball, where Nevada's decent defense will play against Boston College's awful offense. BC stands at 109th in terms of scoring offense. Not a good sign.

That's all for the meaningless bowl games. Next time, I'll be writing one for the National Championship game. I'm at 21-9 as of this preview. Hooray?

Bowl Preview: Orange and Sugar

As I said in my previous post, New Year's Day used to be the day that mattered in college football. Now, it's just a day to enjoy lots of football. In 2011, New Year's Day also provided an opportunity for one of the major conferences in college football to get egg all over its face. But that day has passed, and we're on the downhill slide when it comes to bowl games. 28 bowls have been played thus far, meaning we only have 6 left, and 2 of those feature unranked teams. This post will run you through two of the 3 remaining BCS Bowls. Let's get started...

January 3, 2011

Discover Orange Bowl

#4 Stanford vs. #13 Virginia Tech

How they got here: Stanford got here by having an excellent season--the best in school history, in fact. The Cardinal come in with only one blemish on their record: a loss to National Championship contender Oregon. In that game, they led 21-3 early in the game, proving that Stanford is a very, very good football team. Their wins over Southern Cal and Arizona State were close, but every other victory under Stanford's belt was by at least 10 points. The lone question mark for Stanford is this: they have not beaten a single team in the current Top 25.

Virginia Tech got off to one of the worst starts in school history, then snagged a bit of redemption by winning 11 straight, with only their win over Georgia Tech coming in at under 11 points. The loss to Boise State was rough, but the James Madison loss is what hangs over the Hokies' heads in the national consciousness, right or wrong. Much like Stanford, serious questions must be raised about the overall strength of Virginia Tech's wins, as they've beaten just one currently ranked team: #23 Florida State. Oh, and Tech "got here" by winning the ACC, thus guaranteeing their spot in the Orange Bowl.

Should I watch this game: Yes. ESPN's been touting the quarterback matchup, but it will be more interesting to see how well Andrew Luck throws the ball against Virginia Tech's secondary. Both teams run the ball well (Stanford: 17th, Virginia Tech 18th), but Virginia Tech's normally three-headed attack will be down to one for the first quarter: Ryan Williams is questionable for the game, and David Wilson has been suspended for the first quarter because he missed bed check. If Virginia Tech can get through the first quarter OK, we'll be in for a good game.

Blogger's pick: Stanford. Understand that I pick games based on who I think will win. This isn't what I hope happens, but it's what I think will happen. Stanford's offensive line is amazing, and Virginia Tech's relatively young linebacking corps may have trouble stopping the run, which will open up Stanford's list of options to include running, play-action, and straight pass plays. Look for a fairly close game, but Stanford will likely take this one.

January 4, 2010

Allstate Sugar Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #8 Arkansas

How they got here: Ohio State finished in a 3-way tie atop the Big 10, dropping only their road game against Wisconsin. Mind you, that means they dropped 1/4th of their road games, but I digress. Because Ohio State was ranked higher than Wisconsin and Michigan State, they were guaranteed a spot in the BCS, and they very nearly wound up as conference "champs" by sneaking past Wisconsin in the BCS rankings. Fortunately, common sense narrowly prevailed, and the Buckeyes were not sent to Pasadena. Instead, they drew an Arkansas team that had a fairly quiet year for a 10-2 SEC team. Seriously, without looking can you name me an Arkansas player other than QB Ryan Mallett? It's not that the Razorbacks deserve to be ignored, they just have the misfortune of playing in a season with the Oregon blur offense, the Cam Newton affair, the Carolina scandal, the Ohio State mess, Boise State's rise and fall, the decline of Texas football, and a host of other stories. There just hasn't been time for Arkansas in the spotlight. All that aside, Arkansas has had an impressive season, with wins over 4 currently ranked schools, which is impressive compared to the 0 that Ohio State's beaten.

Should I watch this game: Yes, if only for the crushing Big 10/SEC subplot that will be rammed down your throat whether YOU like it or not! Seriously, we get it, ESPN. Ohio State hasn't beaten an SEC team in a really long time. The Big 10's having a down bowl season (well, at least a down January thus far). You think at this point anyone who follows college football won't know that? Do you think anyone who doesn't follow college football will care? Oh, and this game will feature a good quarterback battle, with the "traditional" Ryan Mallett playing against the scrambling Terrelle Pryor. And though I mocked it above, it will be interesting to see if the Big 10 can salvage a 3-5 bowl record. If they finish 2-6 with wins over only Baylor and Missouri, then Jim Delaney and Gordon Gee and their toadies will really be exposed as cowards, ducking a playoff so other teams won't have all the fun after the Big 10 gets knocked out. Just one last stat to provide you with a reason to watch this game: the Big 10 is currently 0-3 against the SEC. The much-maligned ACC is 2-0 (counting the questionable Music City Bowl...).

Blogger's pick: It's hard to do this, but I'll go with Ohio State. My confidence in this pick might have been high at one point, but not after the New Year's Day disaster. OSU's defense is the 3rd best scoring defense in the country, and they should at least give Mallett a few problems. Arkansas's D has been porous at times (that 65-43 game against Auburn comes to mind), and Terrelle Pryor can hang up points quite consistently. The hyper-conservative OSU offense will give Arkansas little opportunity for takeaways, and I think the Big 10 salvages a 3-5 bowl record in a narrow Buckeye victory.

That's all for right now. As of New Year's Day, I'm 19-9. Woo?

Bowl Preview, 2010: 2011

Heh, snappy title, if I do say so myself...Moving on.

Historically, January 1 was the day of big bowls. It was the day on which many a national title was decided in years past. Thanks in no small part to a combination of ballooning bowl numbers, greedy bowl execs, and the BCS system, New Year's Day is now just a day with a high number of relatively high-profile bowls. Still, it's a national holiday AND a day with a very high number of bowls, so let's not look a gift horse in the mouth. Even if it's a slightly diseased gift horse, like the first bowl of the day...

January 1, 2011

Ticketcity Bowl

Northwestern vs. Texas Tech

How they got here: By going 7-5. To paraphrase Roger the Shrubber, what sad times are these when 7-5 teams can get bowls on New Year's Day. Northwestern spluttered down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 7, which was (unsurprisingly) when they played the better teams on their schedule. Texas Tech wasn't much better, going 3-5 in Big 12 play and defeating the following nonconference giants: Southern Methodist, New Mexico, Weber State, and Houston. Neither team has exactly lit up the headlines, and the only currently ranked team either squad has beaten was Texas Tech's one win over Missouri.

Should I watch this bowl game: Sure, for an hour. Use it as your warmup for the much, much better slate of games that's coming up later. Neither team is exceptionally remarkable except for Texas Tech's passing attack, which ranks 8th in the nation primarily because of the fact that they throw the ball just over 40 times per game (comparison stat: Northwestern throws the ball about 27 times per game). Northwestern ranks 85th in their passing attack, meaning that we could be looking at the makings of a bad game.

Blogger's pick: Texas Tech, due to the afore mentioned difference in the pass attack/pass defense. I know the predictions page on College Football Cafeteria currently says I picked Northwestern, but that was before I looked closely at the games. My bad.

Capital One Bowl

#16 Alabama vs. #9 Michigan State

How they got here: Alabama got here by being the nation's best 3-loss team. That statement is about half sarcasm, half serious analysis. If 'Bama had gotten a little luckier against LSU and Auburn, they'd be 11-1 and would have almost certainly gone to the SEC Championship Game and the BCS. As it stands, they lost 3 games and I get to post an unnecessary picture which mocks one of this nation's premier sports magazines:

Heh, that was kinda fun.

Oh, and Michigan State got here because they finished in a 3-way tie atop the Big 10. Now, understand that I'm not a big advocate of Michigan State, but I do find it odd that the only reason they're not in a big time, BCS payday bowl is because of their preseason ranking. They were unranked, as opposed to Ohio State and Wisconsin, who started the year as #2 and #12 respectively. Heck, Michigan State even beat Wisconsin, the team selected to go to the Big 10's automatic bowl (the Rose). Yes, Michigan State's loss (to Iowa) was the worst of the 3 one-loss teams in the Big 10, but I question whether or not it mattered. Any loss for Michigan State would have sent them here, so they should enjoy it as best they can.

Should I watch this game: Yes, I say with enthusiasm. There are 3 simultaneous Big 10/SEC bowl games taking place on New Year's Day, but this one features the best combination of teams. The squads seem to be pretty well-matched, but Alabama's defense is much better in terms of points allowed--giving up a touchdown less per game. This game will give you the best possible preview of the Ohio State/Arkansas game on January 4, as well as providing two legitimately good programs, rather than the also-rans in the other 2 Big 10/SEC bowls on the 1st. While we're on that subject, allow me to ask the following: why are there 3 games featuring the same two conferences against one another on the same day? Can't they spread these things out any more? Yes, Big 10 and SEC fans fill seats better than anyone else, but the rest of us would like a little variety on our day off, OK?

Blogger's pick: Alabama. The key matchup in the game will be Michigan State's run defense against Alabama's dual attack of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. If the Tide running backs can find holes in the Spartan defense, things could get ugly. I don't think it'll matter that much, as Alabama's scoring defense should hold the Spartans to under 20 points regardless of how well MSU plays.

Outback Bowl

Florida vs. Penn State

How they got here: Both of these teams had seasons that were disappointing by their standards. Actually, 7-5 is pretty disappointing regardless of who you are, but especially with the kind of seasons these two teams are used to. Florida followed up 2 straight BCS trips with a decidedly bad 7-5 season, which ended in arguably the worst way possible: a 31-7 drubbing at the hands of rival Florida State. Penn State didn't fare much better, finishing with the same record as the Gators with just as many wins over currently ranked teams (0).

Should I watch this game: Yes, if only for the postgame interviews featuring a doubtlessly teary Urban Meyer and a mildly self-aware Joe Paterno. So a coach has a down year at a power school that he led back to glory and rather mysteriously bolts at the end of the season. Sound familiar? It should. I have no evidence of anything, but keep an eye on Florida in the coming months, my friends. JoePa, despite not wearing a headset (or knowing exactly where he is) for the last several years keeps right on trucking. Why do I get the feeling that the Penn State coaching staff feels kind of like the two guys in Weekend at Bernie's? No, JoePa's not dead, but does anyone outside of Happy Valley think he's coaching? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Blogger's Pick: Penn State. Florida has officially mailed in this season. Their last win against a bowl-bound team was when they beat Georgia in October. Their last win over a team with a winning record was in week 2 against South Florida. Penn State hasn't been too much better, but they beat a team with a winning record within recent memory. Florida's also had some players get taken out due to injury, which could provide the opportunity for Penn State to pick up a win over the Gators. And I'm sorry, I don't buy the "win one for the outgoing coach" prediction, because Urban was going to be leaving at the end of last season, too. Maybe he and Brett Favre can get together and play dice to decide who gets more media attention during the offseason.

Progressive Gator Bowl

#21 Mississippi State vs. Michigan

How they got here: Mississippi State's season followed a weirdly symmetrical pattern: a win, 2 losses, 6 wins, 2 losses, and a win. Win or lose, this bowl will screw up that nice little palindromic thing they had going on. MSU's 8 wins are a bit misleading, because their best win is probably their 10-7 road victory over Florida. The Bulldogs hung close with Auburn and Arkansas, but got smashed by Alabama and LSU, and those 4 losses are the reason they wound up in sort of a middle-tier bowl game.

As for Michigan, what more can I say? If you're a regular reader, you know that the Wolverines have repeated last year's pattern: open up the season with impressive wins over lesser competition (UConn's Big East title notwithstanding) and hit a wall when faced with better schools, closing the year out by losing 5 of their last 7. Their dynamic, sure-fire freshman Heisman candidate turned into someone who can hammer slow defenses but struggles with teams that can react quickly to the option and broken plays. It really seems like history was put on a slightly improved loop in Ann Arbor this season. "Slightly improved" meaning that they beat Illinois and Purdue this season.

Should I watch this game: Yes, but only when the Gator Bowl and Capital One Bowl are on commercial break. The matchup between Mississippi State's run defense (19th in the country) and Michigan's run offense (11th in the country) will be interesting, but just about everything else is pretty much chaff. As stated: watch this one during commercial breaks and, if it's close, in the 4th quarter, since the other 2 games start 30 minutes earlier. Actually, scratch that, the Rose Bowl starts at 4:30. Unless you're a Michigan or Mississippi State fan, just watch this one during the commercial breaks.

Blogger's pick: Mississippi State. When in doubt, always pick defense. Denard Robinson will certainly score some points, but Mississippi State's ground defense is strong enough to force some mistakes out of the young QB. Michigan's defense will also likely be a liability for the Wolverines. In short, my fellow Michigan bashers should enjoy this bowl season, because the Wolverines are improving, and could very easily make some noise next season. And I mean real noise, not the early-season clanking of tin cans we've seen the last two seasons.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Vizio

#5 Wisconsin vs. #3 Texas Christian

How they got here: This section is much easier to write for the BCS games. Wisconsin was one of the three teams tied atop the Big 10 at 11-1. They're the highest ranked team in the Big 10, meaning that they got their berth to the Rose Bowl the second that the final BCS standings were released. TCU got an automatic berth by virtue of being a non-AQ team ranked in the top 12. TCU hasn't lost a regular season game since November of 2008, but they weren't a football power in 1960, so they don't get a shot at the title. At least they're headed to the Big East in 2012, which should help alleviate some of the controversy TCU seems to generate.

Should I watch this game: Obviously. This is the only real headline game between a non-AQ team and a big name college team. All the others (Air Force/Georgia Tech, ECU/Maryland, Georgia/UCF, Nevada/Boston College) are footnote bowls at best. And they have a weirdly high number of ACC teams...Any hoo, this game will provide us all with some nifty water cooler talk. Or pew talk, since they're playing on a Saturday and you'll likely have to cut through layers of caked on NFL-talk if you wait until Monday to discuss this with co-workers. This looks to be a good one, with Wisconsin's powerful run offense going against a fast (but small) TCU defense. We'll see if TCU's amazing (seriously, under 12 points against per game?!) stats were inflated by playing inferior foes, or if the Horned Frogs were cheated by the lack of a playoff. (Blatant pandering to blogger's alma mater follows: Be sure to catch the Rose Parade in the morning, as the Western Carolina University Band will be playing in said parade. Hey, it's pretty much all we have here in the mountains, and how many opportunities will I have to pimp WCU to a national audience?)

Blogger's pick: TCU, on one condition: that the game is close. This is sort of a stupid statement, but here's my "rules o' the game:" If the final margin is 7 points or less, it's a TCU win. If the final margin is anything more than 7, then Wisconsin won. Furthermore, if Wisconsin wins, I'd put money that it's by at least 20. I, however, am thinking it'll be a close game, which would lead to a TCU win. Hooray, circular logic!

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Connecticut vs. #7 Oklahoma

How they got here: By winning their conferences. UConn won the Big East, which was this season's equivalent of winning a shoving match between the members of a high school Chess Club (OK, Spanish Club, the MAC would be the chess club). Oklahoma took home another Big 12 championship, their 4th in the last 5 seasons. Oklahoma nearly lost several games (they've won 6 games by 8 points or fewer), but the important bit is that they only dropped 2 games, both of which they lost to fairly good teams.

Should I watch this game: For at least the first half, yes. Like most people, I expect UConn to get ripped to shreds in this game. If they're still in it at the half, then this game might just be worth watching. After all, as many pundits have pointed out, Oklahoma has been favored heavily in the Fiesta Bowl before. How'd that turn out again? Oh, wait, I found a picture from that game:

So, you know, anything could happen, even if the likelihood doesn't seem great.

By the way, if you live out there you may as well go to the game. Upper-level tickets are currently selling for about $14. Sideline seats are selling for $75. UConn's sold about 1/4th of their tickets as of midnight on December 29th, meaning that they have about 3 days to sell 13,000 tickets. So if you live in Arizona, Utah, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, or west Texas, take a road trip! You'll spend more on gas than on the tickets, and you'll get to go to a BCS bowl.

Blogger's pick: Oklahoma, for reasons which should be painfully obvious. UConn does have the advantage on the ground, but Oklahoma's pass attack could very easily rip the Huskies for 400+ yards. It is extremely difficult to give UConn a fighting chance, and I would hardly be surprised if this game is over at the half. Best of luck to UConn, and I sincerely hope they make it a game, but I just don't see it happening. The Sooners win this one going away.

There's my predictions for the new year. I hope you all had a great 2010, and I hope 2011 is even better! (PS: Bowl picks are at 7-4 as of December 29. Thanks, Missouri.)

Bowl Preview, 2010: Week 2

As we roll into the second week of bowl season, take heart! Some of the games which take place between the 26th and 31st actually feature teams you might have heard of! Now, you might be wondering, "Bones, why aren't you doing the January 1st bowls? Are they not technically a part of the second week of bowl games?" Yes, they are, but there's 6 games on that particular day. Since I already have 15 games to preview here (plus a week 1 review to write sometime), it's in everyone's best interests that January 1 be given its own blog entry. Now, let's get week 2 rolling with what could be the single worst bowl of the postseason!

December 26, 2010

Little Caesar's Bowl

Florida International vs. Toledo

How they got here: Florida International holds the distinction of being the "best" team in the Sun Belt. That's something like being the best hockey player in Brazil. I understand that the Sun Belt has its own set of issues, but is there any reason that a 6-6 team should be the conference champion? That's a major argument against having a playoff featuring all the conference champions. On the other side of the ball, Toledo went 7-1 in the MAC, but they were slaughtered by Northern Illinois in their only conference loss. Outside the conference, Toledo went 1-3 with one win over Purdue and losses to Arizona, Wyoming, and Boise State. In other words: don't let the 8-4 record fool you, Toledo is just about as mediocre as FIU.

Should I watch this game: No. It'll be the day after Christmas. You can take back some bad gifts you got, or travel back to your house in the big post-Christmas rush. What you should not do is spend your Sunday night watching a game between two mid-level teams. Unless, of course, you actually care about those mid-level teams, in which case you have my apologies for all of the bile I'm spewing onto the Internet. Cheering for Toledo is punishment enough, I imagine. Oh, and the game's in Detroit, which should provide further inspiration not to watch this game.

Blogger's Pick: Toledo. They beat a mediocre major conference team, as opposed to FIU, which did not beat their mediocre major conference foe (Rutgers). Stats look to favor the Golden Panthers, but that might be because their conference is slightly worse than Toledo's. Either way, take this pick as a shot in the deep darkness, because I haven't seen either of these teams play this season.

December 27, 2010

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Air Force vs. Georgia Tech

How they got here: Air Force arrives in this game tied for 3rd in the Mountain West. They, like everyone else in conference, were slaughtered by TCU, but they kept the games with Utah and San Diego State interesting. Factor in the fact that Air Force was quite close to beating Oklahoma, and you have the story of a team coming off of a pretty good season (further, factor in that Air Force is a service academy, making these accomplishments all the more meaningful). Georgia Tech, meanwhile, fell hard from their perch atop the ACC. The Yellow Jackets scraped their way into the postseason with a November win over Duke, which is good for them since they lost 4 of their last 5 games. Georgia Tech hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since September 18, when they topped UNC. In short, it was a disappointing year for the Yellow Jackets, especially when you consider their level of competition.

Should I watch this bowl: That depends entirely on how you feel about the option. This game features two of the top 3 rushing teams in the nation. Both squads run the triple option offense, which also explains why they're both in the bottom 5 nationally in terms of passing offense. So if you like rushing football, fairly quick and low scoring games, you're in luck! Both these teams' defenses practice against the triple option, which should make for a good game. If you like pretty, pass-intensive, high-scoring football with good-looking quarterbacks who have nice hair, then this isn't the game for you. Also, you're probably a communist.

Blogger's Pick: Air Force. The Mountain West may not be an AQ superpowered conference, but their top half is at least alright. Air Force is 10 points away from an 11-1 season. Georgia Tech really only has one thing in its favor: Air Force's run defense is much worse than Georgia Tech's. I don't think that'll be enough given the extra practice time.

December 28, 2010

Champs Sports Bowl

#22 West Virginia vs. NC State

How they got here: NC State had a very good run to start the year before blowing a game they should have won against Virginia Tech. After that loss, the year was decidedly mediocre for the Wolfpack and they went 4-3 in their last 7 games. West Virginia actually had the best record of any team in the Big East, but they finished with the same conference record as UConn and Pitt. Their loss to UConn was what sunk them, but they finished 9-3. That'd be more remarkable and more respectable if they played in a conference that wasn't the Big East.

Should I watch this game: Eh, go ahead. Might ease the pain of being back at work after your Christmas break. This game may as well be called the "we shoulda" bowl. A few twists and turns in the right direction and you'd be seeing these two match up in the Orange Bowl. As it stands, this will be a distracting little sideshow.

Blogger's Pick: NC State in a low scoring game. This game should come down to a matchup between NC State's passing attack and West Virginia's 11th ranked pass defense. I'll give the edge to NC State for two reasons: 1, they played in a (marginally) tougher conference and 2, as a Virginia Tech fan I'm required to hate West Virginia. No, it isn't a valid reason. But if you read my writing for valid reasons, then you're probably misguided as is.

Insight Bowl

#12 Missouri vs. Iowa

How they got here: Missouri had two bad weeks, which cost them the BCS and the Big 12 title. Especially harmful was their loss to Texas Tech, wherein the Tigers blew a 17-3 lead to finish up with a 24-17 loss. Mizzou got no chance to go to the Big 12 Championship, which pretty much sank their hopes for a BCS bowl. Remember, only conferences and teams with unnecessarily high preseason rankings get to send non-champions to BCS bowls!

Oh, and Iowa got to go to this game by finishing 4th in the Big 10. Once it became apparent that they weren't going to finish in first in the conference, the Hawkeyes mailed in the last half of the season, losing their last 3 games. Their 4-4 conference record is nothing to crow about, and you have to wonder about the size of the gap between the top of the Big 10 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State) and the lower teams in the conference. But we can ponder that later...

Should I watch this bowl: Probably. It could give us a good barometer of how the Big 10 and Big 12 will do this bowl season. Missouri's the favored team, and if they fall (or just barely beat Iowa) then we could be looking at a very long year for the Big 12. On the flip side, if Iowa gets blown out then it won't be a good sign for the Big 10, especially when you consider that Iowa has given defeats to Michigan State, Penn State, and Michigan--all bowl-bound teams.

Blogger's pick: Missouri. The Tigers play in a much higher scoring conference than the Hawkeyes, yet their scoring defense is slightly better. Considering that a few of Iowa's offensive pieces are missing (best running back, best wideout), I think we'll see Missouri take this one by a touchdown or two.

December 29, 2010

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman

(Winner of this year's "longest bowl name" competition!)

Maryland vs. East Carolina

How they got here: Maryland had a heck of a turnaround from the '09 season, going from a 2-10 year to being 8-4 this year. Sure, the ACC isn't great (this year or last) but it's hard to scoff at a 6 game turnaround. It's also hard to believe that Maryland hired the guy responsible for the turnaround. Sure, he's the same guy responsible for the 2-10 year, but shouldn't he have been fired then? Not after turning the team around. I digress. East Carolina, meanwhile, has had a season full of fairly thrilling games, with 2 OT games and one last-second Hail Mary. ECU started much stronger than they finished, however, as they dropped 4 of their last 5 games--and most of those weren't close. Both teams, for the record, beat NC State.

Should I watch this game: Yeah, sure. ECU passes quite well (7th best in the country) and Maryland's defense is mediocre. ECU's problem will come from their defense, which is easily the worst scoring defense of any bowl team (fun stat: ECU has allowed almost 10 points more per-game than Michigan, the 2nd worst bowl-bound scoring defense.) Since Maryland is middling overall, and ECU can score well but can't defend, look for a high-scoring matchup. Mind you, you'll likely be watching this game while at work, since it's at 2:30 on a Wednesday.

Blogger's pick: Maryland. Overall mediocrity is better than an all-or-nothing approach. Plus, Maryland didn't blow a 21 point lead to NC State to go into overtime, unlike the other team in this bowl.

Texas Bowl

Illinois vs. Baylor

How they got here: Illinois arrived here by having another gloriously mediocre season. Ever since they made the Rose Bowl in '07, Illinois has been somewhere between bad and pathetic. They improved to 6-6 this season, which really says more about their last two years than I could hope to. Baylor looked like a realistic threat to take their division of the Big 12 for a while, then they remembered they were Baylor at about the same time that they hit the hard part of their schedule. Baylor has lost their last 3 coming into this game, and it's not a coincidence that 4 of their 5 losses came to the 4 currently ranked teams they played. Furthermore, they have one win over a bowl-bound team. Not a great sign.

Should I watch this game: Eh, not really. It's two mediocre teams from big conferences. You'll have already seen a much better Big 10/Big 12 matchup in the Iowa/Missouri game. If watching the 6th place teams from two slightly above average conferences appeals to you, then by all means, watch this game. Otherwise...I dunno, watch Jeopardy.

Blogger's pick: This one's a toss-up. I think Baylor wins, but I say that with no confidence. So don't bet money on this one.

Valero Alamo Bowl

#14 Oklahoma State vs. Arizona

How they got here: Oklahoma State had a pretty good season, only dropping games to the two contestants in the Big 12 Championship game: Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those losses dropped them down to this bowl game, but it's not that bad of a fate, considering. Arizona, on the other hand, started out red hot and finished on an outright skid. Sure, 2 of those losses were close, but 4 straight losses by 1 point or by 40 would have been just as devastating to the Wildcats' overall record. To be blunt, I imagine Arizona got here through geographical convenience, rather than through pure merit.

Should I watch this game: Maybe. Both sides will be scoring points a' plenty, though their defenses are both fairly pedestrian. Look for lots of passing and plenty of scoring.

Blogger's pick: Oklahoma State. This is one of 9 matchups featuring a ranked team playing an unranked team. Doesn't bowl season exist precisely to prevent games like that? Even on the off chance that all 9 of those games end with the unranked team taking the win, it still doesn't solve the problem, because that means that the rankings were inaccurate. Either way...pure silliness. Oh, and Oklahoma State's offense is better, I think, hence the pick.

December 30, 2010

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Army vs. Southern Methodist

How they got here: Army got here by winning 6 games against...well, no one. They've beaten 0 bowl bound teams, and the 6 teams they've beaten have a combined 18 wins. For those who might be bad at math, that's an average of 3 wins per team. Army made it to bowl eligibility by beating some very bad teams. The Black Knights haven't been to a bowl since '96, though, so that's some good news for them. SMU continues their comeback from the dead (a phrase that is probably the most overused thing in reference to any one team in the history of college football) by making their second straight bowl game. The Mustangs weren't exactly world beaters, finishing 7-6 with their loss in the conference championship game. Hence their presence in this fairly obscure little bowl.

Should I watch this game: Sure, if only because of the contrasting styles of offense. Army has literally the worst passing attack in the country, 120th out of 120, to go with their top 10 rushing attack. SMU is coached by June Jones, meaning that they throw the ball...a lot. Army's pass defense and SMU's run defense are both in the top 50 in their respective categories, meaning that we might see a close one in this game.

Blogger's pick: SMU. The game should be close, if only because Army will kill clock with their run attack, but I don't think that they'll keep up with SMU. Especially since the Mustangs are bowl eligible, and beating them would mean that Army would defeat their first bowl-bound team this season. Given that they had 4 other chances to beat bowl teams, I don't like their odds in this one...

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Kansas State vs. Syracuse

How they got here: Kansas State's biggest achievement was taking Texas to task back in November. The Wildcats only beat one bowl team (Central Florida), and finished a distant 3rd in the Big 12 North division. But, hey, at least they made a bowl, the first time they've been bowling since '06. Syracuse is in a similar situation: the Orange didn't really beat anyone good (does West Virginia count?), but they at least made a bowl for the first time since 2004. Sure, their path there included 2 wins over 1-AA teams (they're 5-5 against other 1-A teams). So (and I know I've used this phrase a lot in this bowl writeup) look for a battle of mediocre teams!

Should I watch this game: Only if there's nothing else on. Ostensibly the matchup between Syracuse's defense and K-State's offense should be a good one, but both these teams have beaten no one, so it's really impossible to say just how good of a game this'll be. Honestly, this game is as much of a mystery to me as the Ohio/Troy game was. Oh, but if you're into baseball and hate the Yankees as much as I do, you can pretend how nice it would be if Yankee Stadium double booked this game with an exhibition game for the Yankees and Derek Jeter got run over by a linebacker. That's about it.

Blogger's pick: Syracuse, based solely on their victory over a ranked team. Seriously, that's it.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

North Carolina vs. Tennessee

How they got here: Carolina got here by having about half of its defense suspended to start the season. Had those players been able to play, methinks we'd see Carolina a bit later in the bowl season, possibly even in the Orange Bowl. As it stands, the Tar Heels had a pretty rough year, with their coach's future in limbo after dual recruiting and academic scandals. Tennessee had a pretty big turnaround after their 2-6 start. Yes, most of that turnaround came against the worst teams on the schedule, but the Volunteers can rest easy that they still are better than Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

Should I watch this game: Pretty much copy/paste what I wrote about the Syracuse/K-State game above. This game should be fairly close (after all, both teams' best games this year came in narrow losses to LSU--UNC's because of suspensions and Tennessee's because they can't count), but I can't claim that it'll be great football. Heck, both squads probably have more draft choices on the roster than Virginia Tech or Boise State or TCU, if you're into that whole "college football is a meat farm for the pros" mentality. Otherwise, this game (like the others on this particular day) should serve as something of an appetizer for the much better slate of games on the 31st and 1st.

Blogger's pick: North Carolina. The Tar Heels' defense is much better than those of the teams which Tennessee has beaten, meaning that the Volunteers will likely find it tough to get a sniff of the end zone. Key word there: "likely."

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

#18 Nebraska vs. Washington

How they got here: Nebraska was sent to this game due to two inexcusable losses (most notably to Texas) and a defeat in the Big 12 Championship. On the bright side, the Huskers did win 10 games this season, and one of those was against Washington. Washington got to go to this bowl after a fairly disappointing season. Jake Locker failed to live up to his Heisman hype (admittedly more his receivers and O-line's fault) and the rest of the team foundered along with him.

Should I watch this game: Probably not. It'll be late on the East Coast, and those of you on the West Coast can watch this nifty highlight package from the first Nebraska/Washington game. I know the old expression about how difficult it is to beat the same team twice, but it's hard to say that this game will be radically different than the 56-21 beatdown in Seattle...

Blogger's pick: Nebraska. No reason to go against established trends, the only real risk here is Nebraska failing to get psyched for the game. Given Bo Pelini's penchant for yelling, I'm pretty sure that's a small risk.

December 31, 2010

Meineke Car Care Bowl

South Florida vs. Clemson

How they got here: Both teams got here by having incredibly average seasons. Clemson went .500, giving Auburn its best game of the year, but losing badly at home to rival South Carolina. South Florida gave Big East champions UConn a good game, but got thumped by West Virginia. At least the Bulls beat Miami, something Clemson failed to do.

Should I watch this game: This one falls into the same category as the Music City Bowl and Pinstripe Bowl--two mid-level teams from AQ conferences. Mind you, this game is between a Big East team and an ACC team, thus reducing the national interest to a comfortable low. Sure, watch the game if you like good defense: both teams rank in the top 20 in points scored against them, so it should at least be a close game.

Blogger's pick: South Florida. They beat Miami, which is the difference between their 7-5 record and Clemson's 6-6 record, which is good enough to give them the nod.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Miami (Florida) vs. Notre Dame

How they got here: These teams got here by imagining that they're still nationally relevant. Seriously, the last time this many delusional people got together was at the '08 Convention for the Criminally Insane. (While fictional, I imagine that event was far more interesting than this Sun Bowl will be.) These two franchises have gone through 4 coaches since 2004, with each team on their 3rd coach in 6 seasons. Those other coaches' crimes consisted of not winning national titles (or just not winning in Charlie Weis's case). Miami went 7-5 without a single win over a ranked team, and they'll be playing with an interim coach. Notre Dame was better this season, but they weren't exactly world beaters at 7-5.

Should I watch this game: No, as a protest. Because whoever wins this game will be declared as being "back" by the ignoramuses in the sports media. (See also: Notre Dame winning the 2008 Hawaii Bowl and being declared competitors for the '09 title by sports commentators not named Lou Holtz.) And you don't want that and I don't want that. So just watch the 3rd or 4th quarter of the Car Care Bowl and prepare for the start of the Liberty Bowl.

Blogger's pick: Call it Notre Dame, based on their wins over Utah and Southern Cal. Not much confidence in that pick, but I also don't have much confidence in Miami's interim coach.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Georgia vs. #25 Central Florida

How they got here: Georgia recovered from their awful start to crawl their way back to 6-6. Central Florida won Conference USA, thus earning the right to play a middling SEC team in their bowl game. I understand making lesser conference champions play lower level teams, but a 6-6 SEC school? That's ridiculous! And a little sad.

Should I watch this game: Sure. Should be a reasonably good matchup, when you consider that both teams score almost the same number of points, and each allows the same number of points. Georgia passes much better than Central Florida, but UCF's run offense is much better than Georgia's. Both teams struggle a bit against the other's strength, meaning that we could see each squad score 30 points or more.

Blogger's pick: Georgia. They've been tempered by games against better competition, which should prepare them for adversity, should they encounter it in this game. Yeah, we'll go with that.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl

#20 South Carolina vs. #23 Florida State

How they got here: Both teams had decent seasons in the weaker divisions of their respective conferences (well, an argument can be made about that in Florida State's case). Both teams went to their respective conference championship games, where South Carolina was blown out by Auburn and Florida State was slowly taken out of the game by Virginia Tech. Each team mirrored one another fairly well this season, meaning that this could be a very good game.

Should I watch this game: Yes, for the "mirror" reason listed above. Both teams' stats and rankings are very similar to one another. Both teams also struggled against the best teams they played this year, with South Carolina's upset over Alabama as the only victory over a currently ranked team for either school. This one should be a good game, provided that neither team rolls over and dies when faced with a halfway decent opponent.

Blogger's pick: Florida State in a close one. I think the hangover of getting destroyed in the SEC Championship will make South Carolina come out flat, leading to an early lead which Florida State exploits to a win.

That's all for week two! In case you were wondering, I'm currently at 5-2 after week one. So no Ottoman Empire posts yet.

Bowl Preview, 2010: Week 1

There are 35 bowl games. Since it takes 2 teams to participate in a bowl, that means 70 teams will be playing in the postseason this year. There's 120 teams in college football. That means that almost 60% of the teams (58.3 if you're wanting specifics) will make a bowl game, college football's somewhat lackluster postseason. Now, 34 of those 35 games are irrelevant to the actual championship, but this is still technically the postseason, so by golly, we'll treat it as such!

To that end, here's this year's edition of the Bowl Preview. Last season I went 17-17, meaning that flipping a coin is roughly as accurate as my predictions. This is doubly true for these early bowl games, most of which feature teams that I've seen almost once (call it none). So in this installment, I'll be taking a look at the first week of bowl games, stretching from the 18th of December to the 24th. Let's begin with the...

December 18, 2010

New Mexico Bowl

Brigham Young vs. UTEP

How they got here: BYU opened the year as a mega-disappointment, but they were able to climb out of that hole admirably. UTEP, meanwhile, seems to have followed the opposite philosophy, opening up 5-1, only to finish 6-6. Both these teams actually finished .500, so this looks to be a thoroughly mediocre matchup! Hooray!

Should I watch this bowl: Yes. It kicks off the college football postseason, and if you don't watch this one you can't say that you threw away several hours of your life every bowl game! Also, it'll be interesting to see if UTEP can break their slide and if BYU can continue their impressive little run. But that's not as funny as the first bit.

Blogger's Pick: BYU, for a variety of reasons. They've won 5 of their last 7 (SDSU replay issue notwithstanding) and they beat the world's best quarterback ever earlier in the season!

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

How they got here: Fresno State had a distinctively "eh" season, going 8-4 and losing to most of the halfway decent teams they played. And Ole Miss (oooo! burn!). Put another way, Fresno State is in a conference with 3 ranked teams, and they lost to all 3. Northern Illinois had a good year, but fell short of winning their conference title, despite dominating the conference during the regular season. As a result, they fell from the rankings, as well as falling down to an opening day bowl game. The perils of playing in a mid-major conference...

Should I watch this game: Eh...I don't know. Northern Illinois's offensive AND defensive stats are higher, but they play in an inferior conference to Fresno State, so that could just be an aggregation of stats accumulated over a season of playing lesser foes. I'll be watching this game for two reasons: 1) to figure out what the heck "uDrove" is, and 2) to figure out how sending people to play in Boise, Idaho in friggin' December qualifies as "humanitarian." For that matter, how does it qualify as a reward for playing well throughout the season? It's going to be rainy/snowy with a high of 39 on Saturday. Coupled with the audience of roughly 19 Idahoans and the 36 or so fans watching at home, being invited to this game seems to be more of a slap in the face than a reward. So, in short, yes, you should watch this game, because you'll be able to say that you supported student athletes from "lesser" schools.

Blogger's pick: Northern Illinois. Take this one with no confidence, because every reason for Northern Illinois can be countered by a strike against them. Fresno beat their lone common opponent, Illinois, but UNI played them on the road 3 games in, not at home at the end of the year. Once again, take this pick with a healthy dose of salt...

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Ohio vs. Troy

How they got here: Ohio finished 4th in the MAC, dropping their first and last conference games. They shellacked the eventual conference champions Miami of Ohio, but didn't make the conference championship game due to a loss to Kent State at the end of the season. Troy finished tied for 1st in the Sun Belt, but they lost their game to Florida International, thus sending them to the 2nd most important Sun Belt Bowl. Oddly enough, the winners of these two conferences (the MAC and Sun Belt) will play each other in a bowl game, meaning that the odds of a mid-major champion defeating a middle of the pack major conference school (e.g. Clemson, Florida, etc.) are pared down. Gee, thanks bowl system. Would've hated to see an upset or something...

Should I watch this game: Uhhh, probably not. It'll be on Saturday night! Cut lose and do something! Don't watch two teams that didn't win their mediocre conferences. Well, if you insist on a reason, I guess the only real one is to see if Ohio's defense (28th overall, but 61st in pass defense) can stop Troy's passing offense (12th in the country). But, seriously, see if there's a movie on. Or do some Christmas shopping.

Blogger's pick: Do I have to? Fine. I pick Ohio, because I think their defense will rise to the occasion.

December 21, 2010

Beef o' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg

Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville

How they got here: Southern Miss finished 2nd in their division of Conference USA, dealing Central Florida its only conference loss on the season. The Golden Eagles lost to most of the decent teams they faced, however, though they were only blown out once, by South Carolina. Louisville got to this bowl by completing a surprisingly fast turnaround from the past two seasons. They went 4-8 last year, but pulled out a 6-6 record under new coach Charlie Strong. It may not be that impressive, considering the level of talent in the Big East, but it beats missing a bowl. (Important side note: The Louisville team that barely made this early bowl game is the team which handed UConn a 26-0 loss. That is the state of the Big East right now.)

Should I watch this game: Sure. It'll be a Tuesday night, not much on television. Plus, if you're willing to ignore the records this could actually be a decent little game. Southern Miss has a strong, reasonably well-balanced offense, while Louisville has the 15th best scoring defense in the country. Thus, there's no reason to think that this can't be a good ball game. In addition, you can see how often the commentators accidentally call this the "St. Petersburg Bowl," rather than its actual pretentious name, the "Bowl St. Petersburg." That's silly.

Blogger's pick: Louisville. For some reason, I try to favor defense. Could be because of that old aphorism "defense wins championships." Could be that, being of Scottish stock, I just like defense. Either way, suppose it doesn't matter. Pick Louisville...not much confidence in that, mind you.

December 22, 2010

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas

#19 Utah vs. #10 Boise State

How they got here: Well, both of these teams arrived here by losing games to other mid-major teams. Utah suffered back to back losses to TCU and Notre Dame, thus shooting them down, while Boise State suffered a late-season overtime loss to Nevada. Both of them fell extremely far from grace due to those losses, hence why they wound up here.

Should I watch this game: Yes. First and foremost, you should watch this game as a protest. There's no reason that Utah and Boise State should have been shoehorned into a quiet backwater bowl. Actually, there is a reason: Pre-existing contracts between the MWC and Pac-10 couldn't be fulfilled, so the bowl picked up the WAC's 2nd place team, Boise State. It's silly, especially when you consider that the Las Vegas Bowl's pickup ensures that these two lower conference teams can't hurt any of the big boys. So watch the game to boost ratings, even if you don't care about it. Stop the myths that people don't care about minor conference teams! (NOTE: It still counts in the ratings even if you just turn your cable box to the channel and watch a DVD or something. Hint, hint.) Second reason to watch: Omigosh! An actual ranked matchup before Christmas! It's a miracle!

Blogger's pick: Boise State. They should come out swinging (not unlike LeGarrette Blount) in an attempt to restore themselves in the eyes of the sneering Big Sisters of the Poor. Utah hasn't played particularly well against the good/halfway decent teams they've played (crushed by TCU, crushed by Notre Dame, narrow wins over Pitt, BYU, San Diego State, and Air Force), so they'll likely struggle against the Broncos. Yes, the same could be said about Boise, but at least they've beaten 2 currently ranked teams.

December 23, 2010

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Navy at San Diego State

How they got here: Navy's option attack is 14 points away from an undefeated season. Losses to bowl-bound teams Maryland and Air Force, coupled with an inexplicable loss to Duke, sent them to this semi-obscure bowl game. San Diego State has lost 4 games by a total of 15 points, so we're looking at a total of 7 losses by a total of 29 points. In other words, these are two teams that have lost very few games by very slim margins, creating a scenario where we should see a good game.

Should I watch this game: I know I say "yes" to lots of these, but consider the source. I'm currently over 1,000 words on an article about the week 1 bowl games. This game is another yes. The option (Navy's offense) is always fun to watch, while San Diego State's passing attack is as consistent an offense as any in the country. Neither team's defense is super-strong, meaning that we could have a high scoring game where the last possession determines the outcome. The afore mentioned proclivity (look it up) both these teams have for close games should make it a good one. Oh, and this is the first bowl in 2 days to be the "________ Bowl" instead of the "Bowl ________." That lack of pretentiousness is enough to make me want to watch it.

Blogger's pick: San Diego State. The Aztecs successfully slowed down Air Force's option, which averages slightly more points per game than Navy's. Navy slowed down Air Force, too, but since they run the option they're more used to seeing it. Hopefully the Aztecs' extra time with the scout team will help them overtake Navy. Look for a close game, though, because Navy knows how to slow down a passing offense (see also: their game against SMU).

December 24, 2010

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

#24 Hawaii vs. Tulsa

How they got here: Hawaii arrives as one of three teams tied for the top spot in the WAC. But, since they were the last team to scratch their way into the Top 25, they get the 3rd place WAC bowl. Admittedly, that's probably because they narrowly beat Nevada, but got trashed by Boise State. Tulsa tied for the top of their division of Conference USA with SMU, but lost the tiebreaker. Fortunately for the Golden Hurricane, SMU lost, so Tulsa goes to the 2nd most important C-USA bowl.

Should I watch this game: Depends directly on your definition of "good football." If you like high point totals, then watch this game. Both teams are in the Top 10 in points scored per game, creating the potential for a basketballesque final score. If you like good defense...not so much. Hawaii's barely in the top 50 in scoring defense, while Tulsa ranks 84th in that category. Fans hoping for a combined score of under 60 (or even 80) will likely be disappointed.

Blogger's pick: Hawaii. The Warriors' defense might stop Tulsa on a drive or two, while Tulsa's D could allow 50 (something they've done 3 times already this season).

That's all for this week. Tune in next time to see if I should start blogging about the Ottoman Empire instead of football!