Preseason Polls Purportedly Possess Purpose

Apologies to everyone for the title, it seemed like a good idea at the time, I swear.

Any hoo, yesterday (August 21) the second major poll in college football was released for public consumption. Sure, there was nothing in the way of surprises (defending champion Alabama #1? Really? How daring!), but the release of these polls always creates some consternation among the college football community. Before I begin spouting inane bile, allow me to state that I see nothing egregiously wrong with the first AP poll. I agree with the positioning of just about every team in the poll, and any quibbles I have with the current AP rankings involve stuff like tweaking the team at #15 and moving them up a spot or two, moving #20 down a spot, bumping #24 to #23, etc. So...yeah, petty stuff.

No, the issue I have here is the existence of the preseason poll at all. First off, the AP Poll doesn't factor into the BCS system at all, which makes one wonder why it even exists as it matters quite literally as much as the opinions any given random blogger can espouse at any given second. So unless it exists as a form of subtle protest to the BCS system (in which case, applause to the AP), the AP Poll is the college football equivalent to the Queen of England.

Do not attempt to refute this point. Ever since the debacle in 2003-4 where the AP voted Southern California as the national champs, while the BCS (with the Coaches Poll attached) said that LSU had won the title, the AP poll has been excluded (at its members' behest) from the BCS equation. Yes, the AP still gives out its trophy, but that isn't the one that people focus on anymore. Unless the AP made a bold statement like naming Utah its 2008 national champion, there's no reason to care about the trophy given by pollsters who don't even decide who plays in the biggest 5 games of the postseason. And ever since 2004 the AP has given its national championship trophy to the same team the BCS has crowned champion, so basically any argument that the AP Poll is anything more than a barometer of sportswriters' opinions is fallacious.

Furthermore, preseason polls are often laughably inaccurate. Indeed, the only thing good about the BCS is that they don't release any polls until week 8, allowing time and games to sort out contenders from pretenders. Not so with the AP and Coaches polls, they try and predict the outcome of arguably the least predictable major sport before the season even starts. Allow me to make something clear: I DO NOT FAULT PRESEASON POLLS FOR BEING WRONG! That would be, for lack of a better term, stupid. The preseason AP Top 25 for 2009 had Oklahoma ranked 3rd. The AP could not have foreseen BYU's week 1 upset, nor the injury Sam Bradford suffered in said upset. Nor should they have been expected to. Just because someone is an "expert" does not mean that they can predict the injuries and upsets that make college football interesting. There are dozens of examples of ludicrously wrong preseason predictions, and not one of them deserves to be mocked, because predicting the outcome of any given season is an impossible task for anyone without a real, working crystal ball, and I imagine that particular band of gypsies has better things to do than predict the outcome of games.

"But Bones," you ask, "the Coaches Poll came out a few weeks ago, and it's a key component in determining the BCS champion." Yes, that is true, which brings us to an even more troubling point. While the preseason polls are frequently inaccurate, it's actually worse for college football fans when they're right. The fact of the matter is that preseason polls often determine the contents of a championship game months in advance of the actual game. Texas and Alabama were 2 of the 5 teams that went undefeated in college football last season, yet they made the national title game because they had the advantage of being #2 and #5 in the initial coaches poll instead of #16, #17, and unranked (TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati respectively). Look, I'm aware of the fact that Texas and Alabama play in much tougher conferences than the other teams in question here, but a team must be given a chance to prove itself among the elite! Otherwise, college football is nothing more than an elitist club that won't allow teams to play in big games unless they were good in the 1960's and are still good today (or are mediocre today, but were good in the 1960's. I am looking at you, Notre Dame).

Let's use this coming season as an example: Given the way this season is scheduled, the following scenario is a reality: Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, Texas, and TCU could all run the table. They're all in different conferences, and none of them play one another. So, keeping it simple, let's assume that just these 5 teams go undefeated. Who gets the chance to win the ugly crystal football? Alabama, obviously. They play in the murderous SEC. Who else do you send? Don't dwell on it too much. It doesn't matter, because 3 other teams which started the season in the Top 10 get screwed.

The bottom line is this, the existence of preseason polls is really not good for anyone. It's not good for writers or coaches who get lampooned when their predictions are wrong, it's not good for schools whose fates are often decided before the first snap of the season, and it's not good for fans of teams outside the Top 25, who know that they don't have a chance at getting a national title barring about 25 separate miracles occurring in a 12 week span. The only groups that this current poll benefits are people attached to Alabama and Ohio State, because no one else controls their own destiny. If you disagree with that statement, find yourself a Boise State, TCU, or Cincinnati fan and ask them. Yet, within our grasp, their lies a solution to this problem: it's called a playoff. If you're a member of the BCS Committee, look it up.

Saturday in Review 9/26/09

Ah, another glorious day in college football. An overview of the highlights shall commence.

#1 Florida-41, Kentucky-7

Look, I appreciate a good football story as much as the next guy, but the Tim Tebow overload is approaching ridiculous proportions. Yes, he's one of the best ever at the college level. It goes without saying that he's important to his team. But having to hear about how he took a separate flight to the game because the flu is spreading around Florida is not that interesting.

Also, while I pity him for getting knocked out of the game, one must wonder why he was still in the game! I mean, seriously, the score was 31-7 when Timmy got hurt. Since he was feeling bad (at least according to the media) he should have been taken out when they jumped out to that ridiculous 1st quarter lead. Instead, Urban "I have no soul" Meyer opted to leave him in and show Kentucky a thing or 2 about football. I feel little sympathy for Florida, and none at all for Meyer. You're crushing an inferior team, so there's no point in having your theoretically ailing starter out there.

In conclusion, aside from 1 player playing sick and then getting hurt, this game was about as dull as dirt. Let's move on.

UTEP-7, #2 Texas-64

Food for thought: Texas' nonconference schedule features the following teams: UL Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, and Central Florida. They play in a conference that is beginning to look more and more overrated as the weeks go on.

Conclusion: If, for some reason, the Longhorns lose to any of their conference foes, their national title shot may be totally done. Simple reason: 4 of their wins (assuming they beat UCF, which they should) will come against the cupcake-iest of cupcakes. So, beware, Longhorn fans. The eyes of the BCS computers are upon you.

Arkansas-7, #3 Alabama-35

A good SEC team crushes a not-so-good SEC team. In this battle of the evil coaches, the truly evil Nick Saban beats the lesser of 2 evils Bobby Petrino. Other than their 1st game against Virginia Tech (which they won by 10), Alabama really doesn't have much of a challenge game until they play LSU later this year. They might run into some trouble against Mississippi, who'll be trying to prove that the loss to South Carolina was a fluke, but my money's on Alabama to make it back to the SEC Championship, and maybe contend with Florida for a slot in the national title game.

Iowa-21, #5 Penn State-10

Well, dang. Looks like no JoePa national title this year. Which is sad, because he seems like a nice old fellow who harmlessly wanders the sidelines, wondering where his pizza is. Still, I think we might have safely eliminated the Big 10 + 1 from contention for the national title with this loss. It's sort of a pity and sort of a good thing, as sending a Big 10 team to the title game would inevitably lead to 700,000 stories about how Ohio State and Penn State had done poorly and so on...

As for Iowa, after barely escaping from a 1-AA team in their opener, they've proven that they're a real contender in the Big 10. Time to see if they can hold up under that scrutiny, or if they're destined for another season of mediocrity. Those Michigan and Ohio State games should help prove whether they're real or not.

#6 Cal-3, Oregon-42

I don't know that I've ever seen a Top 10 team beaten in such a complete manner by an unranked school. Cal's "supercharged run offense" looked beyond pathetic in a fairly mediocre performance against Oregon, the same team that was pretty well handled by the Boise State Broncos.

Jahvid Best, pimped by ESPN last week as the greatest RB in college football, was held to 55 yards. I could feed you more statistics, but that one explains the most. Oregon didn't show any mercy, and unlike that Boise State game, they managed not to punch anyone.

Also: Next week Southern Cal plays California in the battle of the disappointing PAC-10 teams!

#7 LSU-30, Mississippi State-26

LSU barely escaped with their #7 (and now higher) ranking intact. MSU should have won this game, but they decided to get too cute down on the goal line. I appreciate the idea of a play-action pass on 3rd and goal, but LSU did a good job of sniffing out the trick play. Hats off to LSU for playing tight defense, but one wonders what the Mississippi State coordinator was thinking. MSU ran for 151 yards, and you really have to ask why they didn't just run it 4 straight times down on the goal line...

In other news, life will get interesting for LSU when they go to Georgia next week followed by a visit from Florida into Death Valley. If they can get out of that exchange 1-1, consider it a major victory for the Tigers. If they somehow get out 2-0...they might turn into national title favorites.

#8 Boise State-49, Bowling Green-14

I'm fairly sure I don't have to review this game. Boise's itching to prove that they're national title contenders, and this demolition of Bowling Green is a byproduct. Since Boise's in a non-qualifying conference AND they have already played the real big threat on their schedule (Oregon), you're going to see blowouts like this for the remainder of the year. Know why? Because they need to show voters and computers that they can beat up on cupcake teams just like the big boys always do.

It's sad, but I hope the Broncos do weasel their way into a title game. Even if they lose, the outcry from the auto-qualifiers could create the case for...well, you know.

#9 Miami-7, #11 Virginia Tech-31

The Hokie defense showed up, and Jacory Harris went from Heisman candidate to middle-of-the-road ACC QB. Mr. Harris isn't a bad quarterback, he just isn't the second incarnation of Matt Ryan (meaning he might win an ACC Championship, unlike Mr. Ryan). Miami was touted and Tech was ignored by ESPN and the rest of the sports media, but the tables turned on that miserably rainy day in Blacksburg, much to this blogger's delight.

What really got me was that the Miami defense which was so good at shutting down Georgia Tech's running attack last week looked pretty crummy against the Virginia Tech run attack. Tech's not a mystery team, Tyrod Taylor only threw for 4 completions and 98 yards, while the running back stable ran for 272. I'm curious how that happened, since Miami held Georgia Tech to 95 yards last week.

To conclude (since I could go on all day about this), Virginia Tech is on top of the ACC this week. They still have some trap games approaching, and in the crazy conference on the coast, it seems that anyone can lose on any given week. Miami, meanwhile, should shoot whoever made their schedule, since they face Oklahoma next week. If the Hurricanes can win that one, they'll be looking at a downhill run toward the end of the season. Where things will get interesting is if Georgia Tech beats Virginia Tech who beat Miami who beat Georgia Tech. In that case, I vote for a coin flip...

Washington State-6, #12 Southern Cal-27

A nifty, if unconvincing, return to the Trojans' winning ways. Matt Barkley came back (and Pete can use that as an excuse for why they lost last week) and the Trojans beat a lesser team. I didn't see this game, and frankly I don't think I missed anything.

In a serious note, let's all send well-wishes and prayers toward Southern Cal running back Stafon Johnson who was badly hurt in a weightlifting accident. It's a reminder of how dangerous even the training that these kids go through can be. Plus, it's a reminder that no matter how important football may seem, or how much we may hate certain schools, football is still just a game.

Get well soon, Stafon.

Illinois-0, #13 Ohio State-30

Well, looks like FireRonZook.com might get started back up. Illinois has been fairly mediocre this year, and while Illini fans aren't anywhere near as crazy as Gator fans, they will only take so much abuse. And a 30-0 loss is pretty bad.

As for Ohio State, it looks like they're still top dogs in the Big 10 + 1 for now. If they can beat Penn State in Happy Valley on November 7, we'll be looking at another Rose Bowl trip for Columbus' favorite nuts. Ohio State is a strong football team, and they can stick with the competition in big games. The key, however, is beating the competition, something they have not done recently...

Fresno State-20, #14 Cincinnati-28

A close game that was never really thrilling, this was an example of how Fresno State is this close to being a powerful threat to the BCS. At present, they're Boise State Lite: Not strong enough to actually beat big schools, but not weak enough to be considered a cupcake game. Fresno has arguably the craziest schedule in D-1 football, and they deserve to be commended for it. Their conference is admittedly weak, but they have a nonconference schedule that is quite a threat. Mind you, their lone cupcake is also their lone win, so we mustn't laud the Bulldogs too heavily just yet.

As for the Bearcats (What the heck is a Bearcat? Seriously, a Virginia Tech Hokie fan is asking what your mascot is. This should tell you something. Friggin' Ohioans...) they looked pretty good against a good team, and as far as this season is concerned, they look like the top of the Big East. That's not that major of a statement.

#15 TCU-14, Clemson-10

A few years ago this would have come as a major shock. Now, it's more of a common occurrence: a school from a mid-major beating a BCS conference school. In this case, last year's uber-disappointing Clemson squad follows up a fairly handy win over Boston College with a loss against a small conference foe. Clemson is performing better since unceremoniously deposing Tommy Bowden, but it still isn't a return to greatness. They're 2-2 with the wins coming against BC and Middle Tennessee State. BC was picked to fall and fall hard by most pundits, and Middle Tennessee State isn't exactly a superteam. It remains to be seen if Clemson can beat anyone who is a real threat. They'll get their chance on October 24 when they go to Miami.

As for TCU, they can crash the BCS party only if they go undefeated. Other than 2 (bad) ACC foes, they do not play any BCS schools, and their conference is fairly weak. The "prove it" games will come at BYU and when Utah comes to town. If this conference wants to send someone to the BCS bowls, they will have the other teams throw their games against TCU and let the Horned Frogs go undefeated.

Grambling-6, #16 Oklahoma State-56

Oklahoma State continues to "bounce back" from the loss against Houston by playing these little nobody schools. It's a little sick that they get to move up in the polls by beating up on crummy schools while Miami will surely fall below them after playing its 3rd (and soon to be 4th) ranked team in a row. Sorry, Cowboys, I'm less than impressed.

Texas Tech-28, #17 Houston-29

Speaking of Houston, they played Texas Tech this week. Texas Tech has had a rough go of things recently, playing Texas and then Houston on the road back-to-back. Mind you, last year with Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, this would have been an upset. This year, methinks that we're looking at a down team. Look for Texas Tech to make one of those obscure little bowls that get played in early December and that have sponsors like Big Al's House of Staplers.

As for Houston, they're in the buster discussion, and this close win at home really helps. Beating a team that lost to Texas by 10 looks really good on the schedule. The Cougars perform well against their foes, and their schedule is getting easier. Houston could, potentially get themselves into a very big bowl if the chips fall right. Otherwise, look for them to make it into a semi-major bowl. Like the Cotton Bowl...

South Florida-17, #18 Florida State-7

Will the real Florida State please stand up? I think that this team right here was the real Florida State, personally. Their ranking was based entirely on good preseason position and a single win over a top-10 ranked team. Lest we forget, this is a Seminole team that needed a 4th Quarter comeback to beat Jacksonville State.

South Florida hasn't played anyone that good yet, and they really won't this season. Their only 2 ranked opponents left are Cincinnati and Miami. A win against Cincinnati on the 15th of October would virtually cinch the Big East for the Bulls, so that's one to circle for those of you who look forward to undeserving teams in BCS bowls!

Colorado State-23, #19 BYU-42

Utah is a boring state.

Southern Miss-28, #20 Kansas-35

This was a great one if you like defense-free football. In a statistical touch, both of the second-longest winning streaks in the country got snapped this week. Southern Miss and Ole Miss both had 8 game streaks leading into this week, and neither made it out of the week with a win.

Kansas, meanwhile, looks to cruise to 6-0 until a showdown on the 24th with Oklahoma. A win there would certainly shut the Sooners out of the National Championship discussion, and potentially put the Jayhawks into it. But Kansas' schedule doesn't get any easier after that with Texas and a resurgent Nebraska team on the board.

Arizona State-17, #21 Georgia-20

Georgia is an alright SEC school and Arizona State is an alright PAC-10 school. Therefore, I am not going to discuss this game any further.

#22 North Carolina-7, Georgia Tech-24

Well, the Yellow Jackets did really well in their bounce back game. UNC looked fairly hapless against the same Georgia Tech defense that Jacory Harris ripped apart last week. This was a strange game, frankly, in that UNC apparently ignored the film on Georgia Tech and let the Yellow Jackets run all over them. Georgia Tech ran for 317 yards, exactly 300 more than UNC ran for. That's pathetic on Carolina's part. I mean, it's OK to run for almost nothing if you're throwing the ball well, but Carolina didn't pass well either. In short, the Sticky Feet got fairly well smacked around by the same bugs that got squashed last week.

Indiana-33, #23 Michigan-36

Dear Michigan,

Hi, it's me again, I wrote you last week. You're still playing mediocre foes and barely beating them. Your current signature win is against perpetually overrated Notre Dame, you have not left home yet, and your team is still climbing in the rankings. I am not sure how you pulled this off, but I applaud this uncanny ability to pull wool over voters' eyes. I look forward to seeing you in a BCS or semi-major bowl while teams with actual tough schedules get shafted and sent to the Big Al's House of Staplers' Wagon Bowl in Paducah, Kentucky.

Sincerely,
Bones

#24 Washington-14, Stanford-34

So...Washington...your ranking was based on wins against Idaho and Southern Cal. You play Stanford the next week and what happens? You lose. To Stanford. Take note, the Cardinal aren't an awful team by any stretch of anyone's imagination. But the Huskies aren't the 24th best team in the country, they just beat a good school and got rewarded for it with 1 week back in the Top 25. Back to mediocrity!

UL Lafayette-0, #25 Nebraska-35

I guess Nebraska felt like they had to crush the Ragin Cajuns. I'm not sure why, but they ripped up the smaller school on offense and defense, leading to a rather uninteresting conclusion to the Top 25. And now...

Tales from the Bottom 95:

Pity about Wake Forest dropping a late one to BC, though Riley Skinner went from hero to zero in a very short amount of time...Rutgers beat mediocre Maryland...Auburn's offense which was so bad that it got last year's coordinator AND coach fired has scored at least 37 points in every game thus far. They haven't played anyone who's really GOOD yet, but it's a start. This week at Tennessee should actually tell us more...Notre Dame went from being "back" to barely edging out Purdue this weekend. Sure it was a good comeback, but against a team that lost to Northern Illinois, it's not that major of an accomplishment...Tennessee beat Ohio. That would have been impressive if it was a different school with Ohio in the name. As is, it's just a win over a lesser school as UT begins their run of 4 straight games against SEC foes this week against Auburn...

That's all for now, see you Thursday/Friday!

Varia 12/1/08

Well, we're back! Just a side note, the actual site called collegefootballreview.com is actually a defunct website which hasn't been updated since 2006. For spite, and no other purpose, I would now like to point out the last article on there. It reads as follows:

No doubt about it, The Ohio State University is the #1 team in the country. The are the real deal and have it going not only on offense but defense also!

I wonder if we could get that domain name...on the grounds that we'd type more intelligent gibberish. Let's move along...

Considering how few good games there were recently, it's unsurprising that there's not been much action on here. I mean, I could write you an in-depth review of the Virginia Tech/UVa game, but does anyone really want to read that? I mean, UVa sucks. No offense.

Which I guess brings me to a point. College football needs a playoff. There is no reason that the winner of the ACC Championship (even if it's my beloved Hokies) should go to a BCS bowl, while Texas, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma will get left in the cold. It's simply inconceivable! The ACC was a middle-of-the-road conference this year, the PAC-10 has only one half-decent team, and the Big East was horrible. Of those three conferences, only one team really should go to a major bowl (and that one team, USC, would get killed by Oklahoma, Texas, or Texas Tech)

Seriously, does anyone want to see the Cincinnati/Boston College game? No. Get more Big-12/SEC teams in there this year. Next year the ACC will be a competitive and good and fun conference. This year the conference isn't that good, and that's OK! Neither is the PA(theti)C-10! Honestly (I can't believe I'm about to type this) I say that, if the system must stay the same, we should send Utah and Boise State to the BCS bowls. Seriously.

As for the Big 12...wow. Texas got screwed, Oklahoma got lucky, and Texas Tech has the misfortune of being the new kid on the block.

I could keep going, but time is short, and our predominant reading audience has ADD. So...yeah, we'll see you later.