Saturday in Review 9/17/11

It was the first chilly Saturday of the year. It was also the first Saturday with a large number of interesting games. Coincidence? Yeah, probably...

#1 Oklahoma-23, #5 Florida State-13

Allow me to preface this by saying that the ACC had a really good day. Stunningly good, especially compared to the conference's early performances in previous seasons.

That said, the ACC still won't get any national love until they beat a #1 (or at least Top 5) team. Since Virginia Tech has been criminally incapable of doing so, the conference had to pin its hopes on someone else, and Florida State put up a good fight. The game was hard-hitting, defense-oriented football, with the added plot twist of FSU losing their star quarterback E.J. Manuel. At the point Manuel went out, I figured the game was over. Instead, the Seminoles' backup Clint Trickett tossed FSU's lone touchdown of the game and made things interesting for a while. But Oklahoma somehow managed to win a road game, which is only surprising because they seem to play about 1 per year. As a result, the ACC remains a conference that hasn't had a big win in a long time. Look, this was the big game this week, there's not much to add to the dang conversation...

North Texas-0, #2 Alabama-41

I want to write something harsh here about Alabama's nonconference schedule, but they at least had the decency to play Penn State (a semi-good team) last week. We don't know too much about 'Bama yet, but they'll be playing Arkansas and Florida these next two weeks, which should give us an idea of just how good the Tide are. Or should that be Tide is? Heck, I don't know.

What I do know is this: North Texas is still not very good. Big shock there.

#3 LSU-19, #25 Mississippi State-6

It was good to see that some SEC teams still play defense. After watching South Carolina, Georgia, and Auburn demonstrate defensive ineptitude on a grand scale these first few weeks. Mississippi State and LSU put on an excellent defensive show on Thursday night. A few folks might murmur that this was boring, but these people are probably Southern Cal fans, and their opinions won't count again until next year. LSU has looked good, and they should be able to hammer through West Virginia, provided that the couch burners don't pelt the Tigers with flaming upholstery.

#4 Boise State-40, Toledo-15

Boise beats Toledo. Nothing to see here, move along.

#6 Stanford-37, Arizona-10

Stanford has been starting slow this season. The good news for Luck and crew is that they can start as slow as they like for about a month and a half until they play Southern Cal at the Coliseum. They'd best quicken up, though, if they hope to beat the Trojans and the Ducks to take the Pac-12 and get a shot at the national title.

Tangent time! What I want to know is this: Who the heck drew up the Pac-12's divisions?! How did Stanford and Oregon wind up together? For that matter, how did Cal get stuck in that division, too? Meanwhile, perennial conference favorite Southern Cal is in a division with a group of teams that haven't been good in at least 2 years. This is a political move, dang it, to ensure that the Trojans are perpetually in the championship game every year. And I might be the last person in the college football world to have figured this out, but that doesn't make me any less angry about it...

#7 Oklahoma State-59, Tulsa-33

The only truly remarkable part about this game was the amount of time it took before the thing started. The game ended at 3:35am, albeit with the same results it would have had if it'd ended at 3:35pm. Well, maybe fewer fans killed by lightning thanks to the late start. But that's about it.

Good news for football fans, though, we might see one of the last great Big 12 matchups this weekend when OSU plays Texas A&M. Well, that or we'll see a 65-63 game that ESPN will call a "shootout" while I mutter crazily about defenses in next week's post.

#8 Wisconsin-49, Northern Illinois-7

Northern Illinois is better than most non-AQ teams (Well, they were good last season. Every year's a crap shoot with these mid-level teams). It was nice of Wisconsin to play the Huskies at a neutral site, especially considering that the #7 team in the nation boldly plays 4 games away from home this season. Their first true road game is October freakin' twenty-ninth! Please, someone, explain how this is legal! I don't deny that good schools should play their cupcake games at home, but how is it possible for a team to have 7 home games, a neutral site game, and 4 road games?

As it stands, Wisconsin looks to face 2 possible road tests: Ohio State and Illinois. A team devastated by scandal and a team coached by Ron Zook. Have fun in the BCS, Badgers! Better hope you don't play Boise, there, Badgers. You don't do real well against good nonconference teams...

Idaho-7, #9 Texas A&M-37

Speaking of Texas A&M...this game looked like it coul--eh, who am I kidding? We all got what we expected in this one.

Washington-38, #10 Nebraska-51

I've had my fill of Nebraska/Washington games. The Huskers took the rubber match of their three game series, which is something that should only ever be written about baseball. A quick memo to the bowl committees: I do not care what these two teams' records are come December: do not let them play each other again. There's 120 1A teams in college football, no reason 2 of the three should play one another three times in a year outside of conference play...

Navy-21, #11 South Carolina-24

South Carolina has risen to be a top team thanks to a very strong rushing attack led by Marcus Lattimore. That's the good news for the Gamecocks. The bad news is that their defense is in 100th place in terms of scoring defense. South Carolina had best find itself a defense quickly with their SEC schedule starting this week, because there will always be at least one game in that conference wherein a team's defense has to carry an offense that hits a brick wall. Right now, South Carolina's defense couldn't hope to do that. The good news is that SC should have some time to straighten things out; even though they're in the mighty SEC, they don't play a currently ranked team until November 5th. Beware of Vandy, though (and I say that only half sarcastically, because the 'Dores are 3-0...)

Arkansas State-7, #12 Virginia Tech-26

What I have learned from Virginia Tech football thus far this season:

1) The defense appears to be back, healthy, and ready to play.

2) Logan Thomas will someday be a good quarterback.

3) Today is not "someday"

4) As it stands, Logan Thomas is a mediocre quarterback who will need the Hokie defense to be playing its best in every single game this season. If the defense has a down game, even against a lesser foe, Tech will lose.

What I anticipate happening:

1) Tech will lose its game against Clemson on October 1

2) Somewhere along the line, Tech will also lose a game to an opponent they should beat (Think Duke, Boston College, or Wake Forest)

3) I will stop writing in numbered lists that make me look like a smug and pretentious feminine hygiene product.

Troy-28, #13 Arkansas-38

Troy never gave up in this game. They also fell behind 24-0 at one point and scored their last touchdown with 28 seconds to go, making this game look a heck of a lot closer than it actually was. To quote Public Enemy, "Don't believe the hype."

Missouri State-7, #14 Oregon-56

Missouri State's scheduler should be injured by what's left of the team. They've had to play 2 ranked schools in three weeks! And not, like, #23 and #25. We're talking 2 schools that were in the BCS last season! Who the heck made that decision. (I know, I know, paycheck. Spare me the comments.) (Pfft, like you're reading the review of the Oregon/Missouri State game...)

#15 Michigan State-13, Notre Dame-31

Is this the Notre Dame we were promised before the season?! A Notre Dame that is the 18th best team in the nation? Or is it just that Michigan State probably isn't as good as their ranking indicated? Yeah, I'm banking on #2, too.

#16 Ohio State-6, Miami-24

You know, the ACC had a good weekend. Just thought I'd reiterate that. Both of these teams had rough offseasons, and it was really only a matter of time before reality caught up with Ohio State. The Buckeyes, like too many other teams, play only one semi-difficult nonconference game per year (occasionally less than that). So after a way-too-close matchup with Toledo, the Buckeyes rolled into Miami and got beaten by a team that lost to Maryland 2 weeks prior. It'll be interesting to see where these two schools go from here, but I think that, by virtue of playing in a weaker conference, Miami will come out of 2011 looking a heck of a lot better than Ohio State.

Tennessee-23, #17 Florida-33

Give Tennessee credit, they hung in a game with their hated southern rivals. But a late charge couldn't make up the 10 points spotted to the Gators early, hence the final score. These two teams are still an enigma in my mind. As near as I can tell, history will repeat itself with these two: they could both be mediocre (last season), Florida could be good and Tennessee bad (2009 season), or they could both be good (the 1990s). But since we're three games in, the only way to find out is to keep track of these two as they play. I know, a noncommittal review if there ever was one.

#18 Arizona State-14, Illinois-17

Well, the Sun Devils' stay in the Top 25 was awful brief, now wasn't it? Give ASU credit, they played a much tougher nonconference schedule than most, going up against 2 foes from AQ conferences. Their reward? By losing this game in week 3 of the season, Arizona State could go undefeated the rest of the way and they would almost certainly not make the National Title game. Gotta love this system!

#19 Auburn-24, Clemson-38

I really wanna hype up my conference of choice some more, but we all know Auburn was living on borrowed time. If they hadn't had home field advantage in weeks one and two, there's a very real chance they could've been 0-2 coming into this game. So congrats to Clemson for exposing Auburn as a shell of last year's championship team.

There are real highlight for Clemson is that they staged an excellent comeback after falling behind 14-0 and 21-7. They also have 4 consecutive home games to open up the year, but we'll ignore that for now. If Clemson can beat Florida State at home and Virginia Tech on the road, though, I believe we'll have found ourselves the ACC Champion for 2011 by week five.

Auburn, meanwhile, gets to dust off and tune up against an awful Florida Atlantic team. Then they play South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida, and LSU in consecutive weeks, with 3 of those games on the road. Have fun, Tigers!

#20 West Virginia-38, Maryland-31

Maryland, probably the 4th or 5th best team in the ACC, made a real run at a comeback against the best of the Big East. Oh, sorry, I was doing that ACC thing again.

Ahem, the couch burners of Morgantown managed to use the power of inbreeding to narrowly defeat a team with none of their tradition or recruiting pull.* Those same furniture-torching, cousin-marrying, mediocre-conference-dwelling West Virginians had best hope that their team can put together two good halves of football, or it'll be a long game this week against LSU.

Oh, and the Maryland/Temple game might actually be good! (See Bottom 95 for all your hot, breaking Temple news!)

#21 Texas-49, UCLA-20

Texas avenged the first of its many miserable losses from last season. Well, one down, 6 to go! Texas now gets to play (and likely destroy) Iowa State. Then we'll see just how much better this year's edition of the Longhorns are when they play Oklahoma in the Red River Non-violent-substitute-for-the-word-"Shootout"-goes-here. Should be a good one!

Florida A&M-17, #22 South Florida-70

About the only good thing Florida A&M can take away from this is that if you mumble the score really fast, then it kinda sounds like they tied. South Florida looks like they could be West Virginia's lone threat in the Big East, but there's a looooooong way to go before the Bulls play the Generic Hill People Stereotypes in their season closing game on December 1.

UL-Monroe-17, #23 TCU-38

After getting beaten by Baylor in the opener, TCU seems to have recovered nicely. They don't get tested again until they go to San Diego State on October 8, so look for that to be the day we find out how far-removed these Horned Frogs are from last year's Rose Bowl Champs.

Stephen F. Austin-0, #24 Baylor-48

The weather in the Midwest really sucked this weekend. So did this game...

And now, gird your loins for Tales from the Bottom 95:

Wyoming is 3-0! Great job, Cowboys...Penn State very narrowly edged past Temple. That's not a particularly good sign for the Nittany Lions as the meat of the season draws ever-nearer...Iowa staged a massive rally to beat Pitt on Saturday. This week we'll learn if that was Iowa's fighting spirit, Pitt's ineptitude, or both...Georgia Tech avenged last year's loss to Kansas by running up the score on the Jayhawks in Atlanta. The Jackets may be back atop the ACC sooner than you'd think. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are already counting down the days to basketball season...Vandy creamed Ole Miss. Houston Nutt should probably print some copies of his résumé while he still gets free ink...Georgia grabbed their first win of the season, albeit against Coastal Carolina...Duke beat Boston College. Heaven help us all if Richmond were to join the ACC, because there's at least 2 teams in the conference they could beat...Carolina defeats UVa. This game won't really be in good perspective until both teams play a few more ACC foes...Florida International is 3-0? The heck?!...Houston still can't play defense...Lastly, Hawaii had to go to Las Vegas. Wow, leaving Hawaii to go to Las Vegas. The only bad part about the trip must've been the beatdown the warriors suffered at the hands of UNLV...

That's all for this week! See you next time! West Virginia fans, be sure to dictate your hate mail to one of the 5 literate people in your state!

*--To any Maryland fan who argues about tradition: You are the only person who has ever been on this blog that knows Maryland won the 1951 National Title. No one else cares.

Cliff's Notes Saturday 9/10/11

Another truncated post? Jeez, I need to get my act together!

*This week was actually sort of dull. I know I might be asking too much of early season games, but come on! Last week we had LSU/Oregon, next week we get FSU/Oklahoma. This week? Georgia/South Carolina? It was an exciting game, but let's not get too carried away.

*Georgia's loss to SC probably cements them as the best 0-2 team in the country. Mind you, an 0-2 record and a nickel is worth 5 cents, but you can't call Georgia a slouch team.

*Arizona State donned some slick-looking black alternate uniforms this week and knocked off Missouri. What can I say, I'm a sucker for black alternate uniforms, so long as they don't have Tron numbers and orange clown shoes.

*Oregon State got smacked by Wisconsin. Could be a great year for the Badgers. Could be a terrible year for the Beavers. In all likelihood, it's gonna be both.

*Virginia Tech avoided puking up an inexplicably stupid loss to ECU. Barely. Now they have the mighty Arkansas State Red Wolves

*Auburn's gonna be this year's version of LSU: inexplicably winning games they have no business winning.

*Ohio State escaped Toledo. That Miami/OSU game could actually be interesting!

Moving downward...Tales from the Bottom 95

*Louisville showed improvement last season, then they lost to FIU on Friday...the heck?!

*Carolina won despite desperately trying not to. How desperate was it? Well, they fumbled on a kneel-down play. That's how ugly the game was.

*Clemson beat Wofford by 8. Go ACC.

*Notre Dame/Michigan was a very good game with an exceptional finale. Heck, that may have been the game of the week! (<-No sarcasm!)

That's it for this week. See you next time...

Saturday in Cliff's Notes: 9/3/11

Between work and travel, I haven't had time to compose an unnecessarily long and verbally abusive post. No matter, I shall rectify this with a super-short (for me) rundown of the first Saturday's slate. Behold! The bulleted list of the Top 25!

• The following ranked teams played a 1-AA (FCS) school in their season opener: Nebraska, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and Michigan State. Unbelievably enough, that's not too bad...
• The following ranked schools played teams from other major conferences: Oregon, LSU, Boise State, TCU, Notre Dame, and Georgia. (Note: I use the Coaches Poll when writing these, so Southern Cal's game against Minnesota doesn't count. Much like the rest of SC's season...) Unfortunately for fans, 4 of those schools were playing other ranked schools, meaning they had 2 of the most challenging games of the week. This sort of scheduling won't ensure good first weeks! Letting Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech pummel members of the SoCon while Georgia has to play the #5 team in the country isn't fair to Georgia! There really should be some sort of rule against this. Well, that or a system that didn't virtually lock out any team who lost in week 1...
• Of further note, in the matchups involving ranked teams and unranked major conference teams, the ranked team lost. This proves little more than something that's been said over and over again: preseason polls are heavily overrated.
• As a Virginia Tech fan and a Western Carolina grad, I have to admit that the App State/Virginia Tech game was the most entertaining television I've seen in a loooooong time.
• Auburn's scare at home should really wake up Tigers fans. Last year's senior-heavy team is gone, and this year's edition of the Tigers might resemble Gene Chizik's other teams...
• East Carolina held an edge on South Carolina for a while. Virginia Tech had best not get complacent...
• South Florida upset Notre Dame. Seriously, when are college fans going to learn their lesson about the Fighting Irish?

There's more that could be said, but let's move further south on the rankings radar, down to Tales from the Bottom 95:

• This year's FCS wins weren't as noteworthy as last year's JMU over Virginia Tech win. Still, the ACC was involved in an FCS/FBS upset, thus upholding the conference's proud tradition. This year, Duke carried the torch.
• But don't go accusing me of East Coast Bias: Oregon State also fell to Sacramento State! I look forward to the coming arguments (probably from the Sporting News) about how the Pac-12 plays the toughest schedule and how Sacramento State is a tough team and how this loss proves nothing. Seriously, can't wait.
• Kentucky struggled with Western Kentucky. The SEC may yet turn into a conference of haves and have-nots.
• Michigan won a game so convincingly that they didn't even play the 4th quarter! How long until they're ranked again? I give it two weeks: beat Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan, climb into the Top 25, probably beat San Diego State, enter conference play and just turn on the highlight reels from '09 and '10. We've seen this show before...
• The ACC avoided any really egg-on-face level losses this season (Duke sucks at football, don't act surprised.). That said, the conference on the coast didn't look that impressive with Wake blowing a late lead, Boston College losing to Northwestern, and the rest of the conference playing 1-AA schools, Sun Belt Schools, or conference games.
• One final ACC blurb: Maryland and Miami. Fun game, close game, blah blah blah. My focus is on Maryland's uniform. The State of Maryland seems extremely proud of its hideous excuse for a flag, so much so that they permit it to be worn on their university's uniforms. And, somehow, it manages to look even worse there. Please let this be the last time I see those things...
• Other conferences? Eh, it's week one. We'll keep tabs on things during the nonconference schedule, but don't expect any real judgment until week 3 or 4. Until then, enjoy the new season! I intend on it...

A Metaphorical Iceberg of Cheating

As a baseball fan, I normally spend the college football offseason focusing on the national pastime, going on long-winded tirades about batting stats and such. I typically eschew recruiting talk (see here), and I'm of the opinion that offseason workouts and spring games are about as applicable to real football as playing Red Baron on an Apple II is to flying a fully loaded passenger jet. Sure, like any good fan I read the preseason magazines and listen to the predictions about how the season's going to go (non-sarcastic hat tip to Kirk Herbstreit for his Auburn prediction last season. I thought it was stupid. I was really wrong.). But the bottom line is this: normally, the offseason is just a bunch of hypotheticals and intangibles, with only a marginal bearing on the events of the field.

You know, I'm kinda missing the days of the boring prediction-based offseason.

For those of you who have been under a rock for the past six or seven months, college football is facing an avalanche of scandals. So many that I'm not even sure where this started, though I'll be focusing on what is almost inarguably the biggest one: the Ohio State player tattoo scandal. You know, the one that was solved way back in December with the decision that the players would serve a largely meaningless suspension to start the 2011 season? Yeah, in the meantime that's morphed into the coach getting suspended for 2 games, then volunteering to serve a five game suspension after some backlash from the first suspension, then that same coach being outed for having had prior knowledge of his players' illicit dealings, and finally in that coach resigning from his position in the face of mounting pressure from people outside Ohio State, because Lord knows the university wasn't going to do anything. That was followed by the team's star quarterback withdrawing from the university to serve as that most unheralded of NFL heroes: Guardian of the Water Cooler.

Ohio State fans spent the majority of December and January whining and moaning, pulling out every lame excuse in the book to defend their beleaguered Buckeyes and Coach Jim Tressel. For the most part, these complaints have boiled down to a three-headed monster:

1. It wasn't that big of a deal! They were selling things that were theirs! (See below)
2. It was the players! Jim Tressel knew nothing and is a saint who only had the interests of the players in mind and he will wash your car, pat your back and give you twenty bucks even though you have accused him of such criminal acts you terrible person, you. (Wrong. Nothing further.)
3. The NCAA is picking on Ohio State either out of a desire to make them an example or to avenge some sort of personal vendetta that a committee member somewhere has against the Buckeyes. (Believing this requires ignoring February-July, plus a level of devotion to a team that can best be described as "stupid" or "cult-like." Also, see below.)

Complaint number one is the only one of the three that makes all that much sense. I agree that, unlike a steroid violation, no competitive advantage was conferred by the OSU tattoo scandal. There wasn't a crime being committed and no one was hurt, so what's the big deal? Well, they broke the rules. It doesn't matter how minor the violation is, the bottom line is that being an athlete is a privilege, and the complex and sometimes ludicrous set of NCAA regulations are the rules which must be obeyed to keep that privilege. If I drive down an empty highway with a 55 mph speed limit at 120 mph and don't hurt anyone, I've still broken the law and I will likely lose the privilege of driving if a police officer catches me. If the officer decides to wink and grin and say, "Oh, it's OK.", then he's violated his code of conduct and could lose his badge. He didn't break the law. He didn't hurt anyone. He just broke the rules associated with his job. And that's enough to fire him and it dang sure should be enough to get rid of someone who gets a free education to play a game. So, in short, I understand the complaint about the lack of a crime, but the rules are different in the weird alternate universe of college football, and if you choose to live in that universe, you have to live by the rules.

As for the "we're being picked on" argument, the best response I can offer there is simply this: hogwash. Ohio State has suffered the loss of some star players and a coach. Damaging, to be sure, but it's about the equivalent of having a lot of players graduate and a coach departure. The Buckeyes won't be as good this year as they were last season, but there will be no lasting damage done to anything but the program's image. It seems that complaint #1 (no crime, no competitive advantage, etc.) was valid enough that the NCAA decided some semi-meaningless punishment would be appropriate. Who cares about vacated victories? I saw the Sugar Bowl last year. Even if Ohio State "didn't win," Arkansas still lost. The Buckeyes aren't losing any scholarships and they're not prohibited from going bowling at the end of the season. At worst, they'll suffer a single down season and be back in the hunt for the Big 10 + 2 title during the 2012 season. Southern Cal, meanwhile, is going to be living with the consequences of the Pete Carroll/Reggie Bush era for at least another season, and probably many more to follow that. Now I hate (hate) Southern Cal, but you have to admit that, compared to the Buckeyes, they got hit much harder. Yes, there were actual competitive advantages from USC's violations, but the punishment for those violations was doled out, what, 5 or 6 years after the player in question was gone? That'd be like a teacher punishing my younger brother for what I did in high school.

Back on the Ohio State topic of being "picked on," though I don't have much else to add other than to say that it's laughably wrong. Schools around the country are starting to feel the hammer of the NCAA's wrath. On July 27, UNC fired Butch Davis in the midst of a major recruiting scandal. As a North Carolinian, it's my duty to report just how unsurprising this is: the guy took a team that had been utterly, laughably bad for years and started pulling in top 25 and top 10 recruiting classes year after year. OF COURSE HE WAS COMMITTING RECRUITING VIOLATIONS! I'd venture to say that in the ACC, either the worst or second-worst AQ conference around, there are probably two programs with no violations of any sort: Duke and Wake Forest. You may recognize them as two of the worst teams in the league and in the country. As I've said before, college football is a dirty, dirty business. And we should all relieve ourselves of the notion that it's just become that way recently. The SMU scandal of the 1980s was just the pinnacle of a filthy decade in college football. Lou Holtz almost certainly won his national title with ill-gotten players (still love ya, Lou!). Miami recruited big, strong players throughout the 80s and 90s who might or might not have been able to spell their own names correctly. I'm not saying we should accept cheating as a fact, but schools realize that big-name football is a money maker, and they want to have the best team around. If they have to bend the rules to get the best players...well that's a chance most AD's are willing to take.

In closing, the scariest part of this summer is the knowledge that we're looking at the tip of the cheating iceberg. It seems like a new suspension or firing appears in the headlines every day. This offseason alone we've seen Tennessee, LSU, UNC, Ohio State, Boise State, and West Virginia come under NCAA scrutiny. Methinks the season will provide us with a break from all this, but look for these investigations to continue the second the confetti's done dropping at the National Championship game.

OK, that's all for now. My next post won't be as depressing, unless you're a former coach. That's right, it's almost time for the not-at-all-anticipated 2011 edition of the coaching carousel!

Ripping Recruiting

"As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly."

-Proverbs 26:11

Sorry, I don't normally go Biblical until at least the second paragraph. Still, avid college football fans (or anyone who watched ESPN for 30 seconds this week) know that Wednesday is National Signing Day. Every year signing day gets bigger and bigger, with more and more focus being poured onto the actions of high school seniors scribbling onto pieces of paper. And every year, we hear about how a few teams have crushingly good recruiting classes that will lead to inevitable greatness in a few years. And then we forget about all that coverage and wind up in the same place the next year, which is sad because we should look up and say, "Wait a minute...[school name here] turned their Top 10 recruiting class from 4 years ago into a 7-5 season. Maybe we shouldn't put so much emphasis and sink so much time into staring at recruiting numbers." But no, we choose to fall into the trap again and again and again.

For those of you who typed "recruiting science" into google and decided to go to the very last result, allow me to explain: National Signing Day is the day on which top recruits, having been promised fame and fortune if they go and play football at various universities, can finally sign a letter of intent to play football for one of those schools. Mind you, the name is sort of misleading, since a player can choose to sign days or weeks after signing day. But Wednesday, February 2 is the day on which most of the top recruits in the nation will sign a legally binding contract and shackle themselves to a given college for at least one academic year.

Recruiting, however, is so rife with filthy policies and outright lies told by coaches and boosters, that glorifying it for the better part of a month is the equivalent of praising a tapeworm inside the stomach of a woman you love. Just because the packaging is attractive doesn't make it a good thing. Furthermore, ranking recruiting classes is such a crap shoot that you might as well just make a dart board with the top 50 teams in the country and start chucking.

There are dozens of examples I could use, but since you don't want to read 7 pages of frankly repetitive bile, I'll try and keep it short. Let's start with a look at one conference, the ACC. I know, I know, not a power football conference, but you're reading a post by a guy from North Carolina. Geography trumps all, and this is ACC country. Any hoo, ESPN's ACC football blogger Heather Dinich did most of my job for me by posting this article about how many of the Top 150 recruits were landed by ACC teams. The list goes back to 2006. The team that's easily landed the most "high brow" recruits in that time, Miami, has gone to precisely 0 ACC Championship games. They haven't even won their division in that time span. Folks, if you land top recruits year in and year out and can't win the 2nd worst AQ conference, then either your coaching sucks or recruiting rankings are off.

Looking more closely at the ACC stats reveals further disturbing numbers: Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have had a combined 9 "top recruits" come to their schools, yet they are the only representatives that the Coastal Division has had since the ACC Championship Game came into existence. Now, you can credit coaching consistency at Virginia Tech, but Georgia Tech has had two different head coaches running two completely different offensive styles, yet they've had two more championship appearances than the much more "loaded" Miami Hurricanes. Rivals.com's recruiting class database goes all the way back to 2002. They rank Miami's recruiting class in the Top 10 five times between 2002 and 2010. Miami finished in the top 20 class rankings every single year during that time span, but they finished in the top 20 in the rankings only 5 times. There's a disconnect there, and it's high time that someone recognized that recruiting doesn't need to be as highly touted as it is.

Some might accuse me of Miami bashing. I am, but that doesn't mean I'm not right. Still, let's look at a team I have no real bias for or against: the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame had top 10 recruiting classes in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Most of their starters in 2009 and 2010 would have come from those highly ranked classes. Yet in 2009 and 2010, Notre Dame went a combined 14-11, with one win over a ranked team.

Perhaps the most extreme example is this: The USC Trojans had the #1 overall class from 2004-2006 according to Rivals. Both Rivals and ESPN say that Southern Cal had a Top 10 class from 2006-present. Yet last season, stocked to the gills with Top 10 recruits, they went 9-4. This year, ineligible for postseason play due to the Reggie Bush affair, they went 8-5. All ye disciples of recruiting, explain this!

So why all the inaccuracies? Well, there's a number of factors that make accurate recruiting numbers a virtual impossibility. First off, recruiting class rankings basically entail trying to predict the future 3-4 years in advance, which is how long it will take for most recruits to see decent playing time. Sloppy did a good piece on the accuracy of preseason predictions. If the experts were wrong about the best teams 4 months ago, why place so much stock in what they say will happen in 4 years?

Secondly, the recruits we're talking about are overwhelmingly high school seniors. High school is nothing like college (no matter what Degrassi tells you). And high school seniors, as a rule, are unpredictable. Most 18 year olds are! A high school senior who seemed to be a rock solid, straight A student might discover Professor Jim Beam in his first week of school. Then your 5-star recruit becomes a walking hangover who gets cut from the team. Or that five-star recruit might turn into a whiny little so-and-so who demands play time. Or, he might get arrested and transfer out. It's not the fault of recruiting prognosticators for not seeing these events coming, but it is our fault for pretending like a #1 recruit tag means a Heisman in 4 years. Sometimes it means a mediocre, injury-riddled career. And if your coach says he will take control and keep the players in line, then he's probably wrong. Urban Meyer, with 2 national titles under his belt, thought he could. It didn't work well.

The final reason (at least that I see) that recruiting predictions are pure bunk is this: According to the diverse and wildly varying stats I got in a google search, there's somewhere in the neighborhood of 26,000 public high schools in the US, with about 10,000 more private ones. Now, I know many of those schools don't have football programs, but even if you cut those numbers into 1/3rd, that's still around 12,000 football programs. Far, far too many to hope to analyze successfully with the relatively small staffs available to recruiting websites. Even if you cut that number in half, or into quarters, you're still looking at far too many players for recruiters to analyze. Tell me, how many times have you heard the phrase "former walk-on" when watching college football? Any time you hear that, you're hearing about a player who was good enough to play college football at the highest of levels, yet "bad" enough in high school that he did not merit a recruit ranking.

Put another way, there are dozens of lists out there ranking draft busts in the NFL. (Look it up yourself, pro football isn't the purpose of this site.) Those "busts" are the missed predictions of only 32 teams picking up just a few hundred players total. How much more inaccurate will the rankings of 120 teams pulling in thousands of players be? And yet every year fans decide to compare and drool over their recruiting classes, eagerly awaiting that National Championship in 4 years.

Look, I'm not going to lie: Recruiting is important. Necessary, even. Most of the teams in the national title hunt each have had at least one top 10 recruiting class. It's impossible to win without talent. Bear Bryant in his prime could not take the talent at Western Carolina University and win a national title. However, we must not place too much emphasis on recruiting, because it's a woefully inexact science. Claiming that a top 10 class means anything before the players hit the field is sheer folly. Drooling over recruits before they produce results is a one-way ticket to Disappointmentville. So don't get worked up about the recruiting bonanza. If your team is in the Top 50 or so, they'll be fine. And whatever you do, do not watch the 10 hours of recruiting on ESPNU. Unless, of course, you want a pile of vomit to return to...

Bowl Preview: The Big One

Well, we're here. 34 bowls after we started, we have finally arrived at the National Championship Game. And after gems like the Humanitarian Bowl and the Capital One Bowl, as well as slaughters in the Orange Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl, who can wait?! Ironically, despite the fact that this is the only game since December 4th that's mattered, this will be a pretty short post by my standards, as there's only one game to preview. Don't worry, the excruciating posts you can read aloud to put unruly children to sleep shall return at season's end. For now, however, let's take a look at the big show!

January 10, 2011

Tostitos BCS National Championship Game

#2 Oregon vs. #1 Auburn

How they got here: By being undefeated teams from major conferences, because there's no way that an undefeated team from a minor conference could hope to stick with a conference champion from a major conference! Wait a minute...

Should I watch this game: If you actually asked yourself this, go away. Find a blog more your speed. Here's one.

Blogger's Pick: Oregon. The Ducks are, for obvious reasons, known for their prolific offense. 1st in the country, nearly 50 points per game, blah blah blah. You know the friggin' drill. Auburn and Oregon are pretty danged similar, as you know if you've watched anything about this game on any sports network. The lone big edge that either team has is in scoring defense, where the Ducks place 12th. Each team runs the ball well, with rushing offense ranks of 4th for OU and 5th for the Tigers. It is important to note, however, that both teams also rank in the top 15 in rush defense, with Oregon at 15th and Auburn at 11th. Both sides' defenses play against running spread teams in practice, so that makes sense.

The noticeable statistical difference (aside from scoring, which isn't a bad stat, but it's not super reliable) lies in passing defense: Oregon ranks 56th, compared to Auburn's 105th. Neither team passes well, but if Oregon's defense is able to shut down Cam Newton on the ground, then Auburn will have to go to their 67th ranked air attack. Oregon should also have trouble going to the ground against Auburn's strong rush D, but the Ducks' passing attack is more well-suited as a fall-back plan than Auburn's. Throw in the fact that Oregon's defense is pretty much a stone wall in the 4th quarter, and you have a recipe to send that ugly crystal football to the Pacific Northwest.

That's all for the previews. Stay tuned for the various "year in review" articles on this and every other college football blog on the face of the planet! (PS: Bowl predictions stand at 24-10 with one more game to go!)

Bowl Preview: Cotton and Scraps...

With the majority of the bowls behind us, most eyes in the college football world will turn to Tempe, Arizona, where Oregon and Auburn are set to play in the National Title game. A few eyes will turn to Dallas, where LSU and Texas A&M will play in the second-to-last battle of ranked teams. But that's silly! That would ignore such giant games as the GoDaddy.com Bowl and the BBVA Compass Bowl. OK, so most of the games between here and the end of the season feature a mix of non-AQ teams and middling teams from other conferences, but that doesn't mean we should just ignore them. After all, come January 10 we'll have to wait 8 months for college football to start again, and we'll even be longing for matchups like...

January 6, 2011

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (OH)

How they got here: MTSU finished in second in the Sun Belt, which is actually sort of embarrassing. I guess it's not that bad, as they're one of only three teams from the conference to finish .500 or better. Still, the Blue Raiders are really not that remarkable, with the exception of their nickname, which is quite unique. (For the 2 of you who care, don't try cramming Dwight Dasher down my throat. He missed the first 4 games of the season because he took a $1,500 loan, and in the truncated year he's managed to throw as many picks and get sacked as many times as he did last season. Color me unimpressed.)

Miami got here by pulling an upset of Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship (Attendance: 12,031. Ford Field seats 65,000. Why does the MAC need a championship game?). Miami is a good story, completing a turnaround from 1-11 to 8-4 with a conference championship. The MAC Champions get to go to one of, like, 3 games, since they have no strong ties with any one bowl. Almost no one cares, but I thought I'd point that out.

Should I watch this game: Probably not. Thursday nights aren't necessarily strong TV nights, but if watching the winner of the MAC play the 3rd place Sun Belt team is your idea of a good application of your time, then you're probably the type of person who reads my blog posts. Wait...

Blogger's pick: Miami. The RedHawks have the 18th best rushing defense in the nation. MTSU's only salient feature is their running game with Dasher, and Miami should shut it down. MTSU's pass defense isn't a slouch unit (and Miami is a passing team), but I believe Miami has a slight edge on the Blue Raiders. Should be a good game, though...

January 7, 2011

AT&T Cotton Bowl

#11 LSU vs. #17 Texas A&M

How they got here: Trying to tell you how LSU wound up going 10-2 this season would be an exercise in futility. I could type and type and type (I frequently do) but unless you've followed college football this season, then you really wouldn't understand how LSU went 10-2. Heck, I did follow college football this season, and I'm still not entirely sure. So, to revive an old, unfunny gag and to give you something to look at, here's a picture of a kitten:

Texas A&M, meanwhile, had a good season in the Big 12. They missed going to the conference championship game, but they did defeat both of the teams that went to said championship game. In fact, the Aggies went on a 3 game losing streak mid-season, and some idiot said they were done. Since then, they've won 6 straight, and they look like one of the best teams in the Big 12.

Should I watch this game: Yes! Oh, goodness yes! This is the second-to-last ranked matchup of the season, meaning that we'll be stuck with inexplicably mediocre post-New Year's Day bowl games until the 10th. And after that, the season ends. So enjoy this while you can. I have also discovered, through research, a phenomenon that I am calling Miles's Law. Miles's Law is, in effect, if something weird can happen, it will.

Oh, and this game will again feature the "conflicting styles" narrative: Texas A&M is a passing team, and LSU is a rushing team LSU, Kentucky, and Auburn also have to "prove" that the SEC is still the best conference in the country. A loss here and we might start to see the national media question the SEC's dominance. (BWAHAHAHA, I almost typed that with a straight face.)

Special Note: Be sure to keep the remote handy, as this is the same night as the 1-AA (FCS, if you're a tool of the system) championship. Tune into that game as well, if only for keeping college football's sanctity intact. Plus, to keep people from believing that college is just a meat farm for the NFL, since very few of the players for Eastern Washington or Delaware are going to go to the pros.

Blogger's pick: LSU. The Big 12 has honestly looked just as bad as the Big 10 this bowl season, with two Big 12 teams losing to unranked foes and 2 of the 3 Big 12 wins coming with ranked teams beating unranked teams. Not a great sign for the Big 12 team in this one. Mind you, thanks to Miles's Law, this game will likely be a game decided by a blocked extra point or something similarly bizarre.

January 8, 2011

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pitt vs. Kentucky

How they got here: Pittsburgh started the year as the favorite to win the Big East. They finished as just another mid-level Big East team, to go along with West Virginia, UConn, Syracuse, South Florida, and Louisville. A good example of how Pitt's year went can be found in their game with Miami, a mid-level ACC team. Pitt lost that game 31-3--at home!

Kentucky's claim to fame this season is their 2-game series with Auburn and South Carolina, where they stuck within 3 of Auburn and beat the South Carolina team which had just knocked off #1 Alabama. The rest of their season was sort of blah, and the final game was a 10 point loss to Tennessee--Kentucky's 26th consecutive loss to the Volunteers.

Should I watch this game: Only because this is the last Saturday game of the year. This is a matchup of a .500 team and a slightly above .500 team. We might be in for a good one, possibly because of the fact that neither team is remarkably good or bad in any given statistical category. Meaning we might have a good one here. Or a bad one, it doesn't matter. Oh, and this is another one to watch for the sponsor. Is it sponsored by a compass-maker? We'll have to watch to find out.

Blogger's pick: Kentucky. When given a choice between an SEC team and a Big East team, always go SEC. Yes, even if it's Vandy. Plus, with Pitt's coach drama...things could get rough, really quickly.

January 9, 2011

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

#15 Nevada vs. Boston College

How they got here: Nevada won a piece of the WAC title and got to go to this one by virtue of being the "champion" thanks to having a better overall record than Hawaii and the head-to-head tiebreaker with Boise State. BC got all their losses in a 5-game streak in September and October, and they finished 4-4 in the fairly awful ACC.

Should I watch this game: Only by virtue of this being the second-to-last game in the season. That's really it. Well, that and to see some heart-wrenching and/or feel-good ads about helping to fight hunger in America.

Blogger's pick: Nevada in a close one. The Wolf Pack run well, but BC has the best rushing defense in the country. The difference will be on the other side of the ball, where Nevada's decent defense will play against Boston College's awful offense. BC stands at 109th in terms of scoring offense. Not a good sign.

That's all for the meaningless bowl games. Next time, I'll be writing one for the National Championship game. I'm at 21-9 as of this preview. Hooray?

Bowl Preview: Orange and Sugar

As I said in my previous post, New Year's Day used to be the day that mattered in college football. Now, it's just a day to enjoy lots of football. In 2011, New Year's Day also provided an opportunity for one of the major conferences in college football to get egg all over its face. But that day has passed, and we're on the downhill slide when it comes to bowl games. 28 bowls have been played thus far, meaning we only have 6 left, and 2 of those feature unranked teams. This post will run you through two of the 3 remaining BCS Bowls. Let's get started...

January 3, 2011

Discover Orange Bowl

#4 Stanford vs. #13 Virginia Tech

How they got here: Stanford got here by having an excellent season--the best in school history, in fact. The Cardinal come in with only one blemish on their record: a loss to National Championship contender Oregon. In that game, they led 21-3 early in the game, proving that Stanford is a very, very good football team. Their wins over Southern Cal and Arizona State were close, but every other victory under Stanford's belt was by at least 10 points. The lone question mark for Stanford is this: they have not beaten a single team in the current Top 25.

Virginia Tech got off to one of the worst starts in school history, then snagged a bit of redemption by winning 11 straight, with only their win over Georgia Tech coming in at under 11 points. The loss to Boise State was rough, but the James Madison loss is what hangs over the Hokies' heads in the national consciousness, right or wrong. Much like Stanford, serious questions must be raised about the overall strength of Virginia Tech's wins, as they've beaten just one currently ranked team: #23 Florida State. Oh, and Tech "got here" by winning the ACC, thus guaranteeing their spot in the Orange Bowl.

Should I watch this game: Yes. ESPN's been touting the quarterback matchup, but it will be more interesting to see how well Andrew Luck throws the ball against Virginia Tech's secondary. Both teams run the ball well (Stanford: 17th, Virginia Tech 18th), but Virginia Tech's normally three-headed attack will be down to one for the first quarter: Ryan Williams is questionable for the game, and David Wilson has been suspended for the first quarter because he missed bed check. If Virginia Tech can get through the first quarter OK, we'll be in for a good game.

Blogger's pick: Stanford. Understand that I pick games based on who I think will win. This isn't what I hope happens, but it's what I think will happen. Stanford's offensive line is amazing, and Virginia Tech's relatively young linebacking corps may have trouble stopping the run, which will open up Stanford's list of options to include running, play-action, and straight pass plays. Look for a fairly close game, but Stanford will likely take this one.

January 4, 2010

Allstate Sugar Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #8 Arkansas

How they got here: Ohio State finished in a 3-way tie atop the Big 10, dropping only their road game against Wisconsin. Mind you, that means they dropped 1/4th of their road games, but I digress. Because Ohio State was ranked higher than Wisconsin and Michigan State, they were guaranteed a spot in the BCS, and they very nearly wound up as conference "champs" by sneaking past Wisconsin in the BCS rankings. Fortunately, common sense narrowly prevailed, and the Buckeyes were not sent to Pasadena. Instead, they drew an Arkansas team that had a fairly quiet year for a 10-2 SEC team. Seriously, without looking can you name me an Arkansas player other than QB Ryan Mallett? It's not that the Razorbacks deserve to be ignored, they just have the misfortune of playing in a season with the Oregon blur offense, the Cam Newton affair, the Carolina scandal, the Ohio State mess, Boise State's rise and fall, the decline of Texas football, and a host of other stories. There just hasn't been time for Arkansas in the spotlight. All that aside, Arkansas has had an impressive season, with wins over 4 currently ranked schools, which is impressive compared to the 0 that Ohio State's beaten.

Should I watch this game: Yes, if only for the crushing Big 10/SEC subplot that will be rammed down your throat whether YOU like it or not! Seriously, we get it, ESPN. Ohio State hasn't beaten an SEC team in a really long time. The Big 10's having a down bowl season (well, at least a down January thus far). You think at this point anyone who follows college football won't know that? Do you think anyone who doesn't follow college football will care? Oh, and this game will feature a good quarterback battle, with the "traditional" Ryan Mallett playing against the scrambling Terrelle Pryor. And though I mocked it above, it will be interesting to see if the Big 10 can salvage a 3-5 bowl record. If they finish 2-6 with wins over only Baylor and Missouri, then Jim Delaney and Gordon Gee and their toadies will really be exposed as cowards, ducking a playoff so other teams won't have all the fun after the Big 10 gets knocked out. Just one last stat to provide you with a reason to watch this game: the Big 10 is currently 0-3 against the SEC. The much-maligned ACC is 2-0 (counting the questionable Music City Bowl...).

Blogger's pick: It's hard to do this, but I'll go with Ohio State. My confidence in this pick might have been high at one point, but not after the New Year's Day disaster. OSU's defense is the 3rd best scoring defense in the country, and they should at least give Mallett a few problems. Arkansas's D has been porous at times (that 65-43 game against Auburn comes to mind), and Terrelle Pryor can hang up points quite consistently. The hyper-conservative OSU offense will give Arkansas little opportunity for takeaways, and I think the Big 10 salvages a 3-5 bowl record in a narrow Buckeye victory.

That's all for right now. As of New Year's Day, I'm 19-9. Woo?

Bowl Preview, 2010: 2011

Heh, snappy title, if I do say so myself...Moving on.

Historically, January 1 was the day of big bowls. It was the day on which many a national title was decided in years past. Thanks in no small part to a combination of ballooning bowl numbers, greedy bowl execs, and the BCS system, New Year's Day is now just a day with a high number of relatively high-profile bowls. Still, it's a national holiday AND a day with a very high number of bowls, so let's not look a gift horse in the mouth. Even if it's a slightly diseased gift horse, like the first bowl of the day...

January 1, 2011

Ticketcity Bowl

Northwestern vs. Texas Tech

How they got here: By going 7-5. To paraphrase Roger the Shrubber, what sad times are these when 7-5 teams can get bowls on New Year's Day. Northwestern spluttered down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 7, which was (unsurprisingly) when they played the better teams on their schedule. Texas Tech wasn't much better, going 3-5 in Big 12 play and defeating the following nonconference giants: Southern Methodist, New Mexico, Weber State, and Houston. Neither team has exactly lit up the headlines, and the only currently ranked team either squad has beaten was Texas Tech's one win over Missouri.

Should I watch this bowl game: Sure, for an hour. Use it as your warmup for the much, much better slate of games that's coming up later. Neither team is exceptionally remarkable except for Texas Tech's passing attack, which ranks 8th in the nation primarily because of the fact that they throw the ball just over 40 times per game (comparison stat: Northwestern throws the ball about 27 times per game). Northwestern ranks 85th in their passing attack, meaning that we could be looking at the makings of a bad game.

Blogger's pick: Texas Tech, due to the afore mentioned difference in the pass attack/pass defense. I know the predictions page on College Football Cafeteria currently says I picked Northwestern, but that was before I looked closely at the games. My bad.

Capital One Bowl

#16 Alabama vs. #9 Michigan State

How they got here: Alabama got here by being the nation's best 3-loss team. That statement is about half sarcasm, half serious analysis. If 'Bama had gotten a little luckier against LSU and Auburn, they'd be 11-1 and would have almost certainly gone to the SEC Championship Game and the BCS. As it stands, they lost 3 games and I get to post an unnecessary picture which mocks one of this nation's premier sports magazines:

Heh, that was kinda fun.

Oh, and Michigan State got here because they finished in a 3-way tie atop the Big 10. Now, understand that I'm not a big advocate of Michigan State, but I do find it odd that the only reason they're not in a big time, BCS payday bowl is because of their preseason ranking. They were unranked, as opposed to Ohio State and Wisconsin, who started the year as #2 and #12 respectively. Heck, Michigan State even beat Wisconsin, the team selected to go to the Big 10's automatic bowl (the Rose). Yes, Michigan State's loss (to Iowa) was the worst of the 3 one-loss teams in the Big 10, but I question whether or not it mattered. Any loss for Michigan State would have sent them here, so they should enjoy it as best they can.

Should I watch this game: Yes, I say with enthusiasm. There are 3 simultaneous Big 10/SEC bowl games taking place on New Year's Day, but this one features the best combination of teams. The squads seem to be pretty well-matched, but Alabama's defense is much better in terms of points allowed--giving up a touchdown less per game. This game will give you the best possible preview of the Ohio State/Arkansas game on January 4, as well as providing two legitimately good programs, rather than the also-rans in the other 2 Big 10/SEC bowls on the 1st. While we're on that subject, allow me to ask the following: why are there 3 games featuring the same two conferences against one another on the same day? Can't they spread these things out any more? Yes, Big 10 and SEC fans fill seats better than anyone else, but the rest of us would like a little variety on our day off, OK?

Blogger's pick: Alabama. The key matchup in the game will be Michigan State's run defense against Alabama's dual attack of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. If the Tide running backs can find holes in the Spartan defense, things could get ugly. I don't think it'll matter that much, as Alabama's scoring defense should hold the Spartans to under 20 points regardless of how well MSU plays.

Outback Bowl

Florida vs. Penn State

How they got here: Both of these teams had seasons that were disappointing by their standards. Actually, 7-5 is pretty disappointing regardless of who you are, but especially with the kind of seasons these two teams are used to. Florida followed up 2 straight BCS trips with a decidedly bad 7-5 season, which ended in arguably the worst way possible: a 31-7 drubbing at the hands of rival Florida State. Penn State didn't fare much better, finishing with the same record as the Gators with just as many wins over currently ranked teams (0).

Should I watch this game: Yes, if only for the postgame interviews featuring a doubtlessly teary Urban Meyer and a mildly self-aware Joe Paterno. So a coach has a down year at a power school that he led back to glory and rather mysteriously bolts at the end of the season. Sound familiar? It should. I have no evidence of anything, but keep an eye on Florida in the coming months, my friends. JoePa, despite not wearing a headset (or knowing exactly where he is) for the last several years keeps right on trucking. Why do I get the feeling that the Penn State coaching staff feels kind of like the two guys in Weekend at Bernie's? No, JoePa's not dead, but does anyone outside of Happy Valley think he's coaching? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Blogger's Pick: Penn State. Florida has officially mailed in this season. Their last win against a bowl-bound team was when they beat Georgia in October. Their last win over a team with a winning record was in week 2 against South Florida. Penn State hasn't been too much better, but they beat a team with a winning record within recent memory. Florida's also had some players get taken out due to injury, which could provide the opportunity for Penn State to pick up a win over the Gators. And I'm sorry, I don't buy the "win one for the outgoing coach" prediction, because Urban was going to be leaving at the end of last season, too. Maybe he and Brett Favre can get together and play dice to decide who gets more media attention during the offseason.

Progressive Gator Bowl

#21 Mississippi State vs. Michigan

How they got here: Mississippi State's season followed a weirdly symmetrical pattern: a win, 2 losses, 6 wins, 2 losses, and a win. Win or lose, this bowl will screw up that nice little palindromic thing they had going on. MSU's 8 wins are a bit misleading, because their best win is probably their 10-7 road victory over Florida. The Bulldogs hung close with Auburn and Arkansas, but got smashed by Alabama and LSU, and those 4 losses are the reason they wound up in sort of a middle-tier bowl game.

As for Michigan, what more can I say? If you're a regular reader, you know that the Wolverines have repeated last year's pattern: open up the season with impressive wins over lesser competition (UConn's Big East title notwithstanding) and hit a wall when faced with better schools, closing the year out by losing 5 of their last 7. Their dynamic, sure-fire freshman Heisman candidate turned into someone who can hammer slow defenses but struggles with teams that can react quickly to the option and broken plays. It really seems like history was put on a slightly improved loop in Ann Arbor this season. "Slightly improved" meaning that they beat Illinois and Purdue this season.

Should I watch this game: Yes, but only when the Gator Bowl and Capital One Bowl are on commercial break. The matchup between Mississippi State's run defense (19th in the country) and Michigan's run offense (11th in the country) will be interesting, but just about everything else is pretty much chaff. As stated: watch this one during commercial breaks and, if it's close, in the 4th quarter, since the other 2 games start 30 minutes earlier. Actually, scratch that, the Rose Bowl starts at 4:30. Unless you're a Michigan or Mississippi State fan, just watch this one during the commercial breaks.

Blogger's pick: Mississippi State. When in doubt, always pick defense. Denard Robinson will certainly score some points, but Mississippi State's ground defense is strong enough to force some mistakes out of the young QB. Michigan's defense will also likely be a liability for the Wolverines. In short, my fellow Michigan bashers should enjoy this bowl season, because the Wolverines are improving, and could very easily make some noise next season. And I mean real noise, not the early-season clanking of tin cans we've seen the last two seasons.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Vizio

#5 Wisconsin vs. #3 Texas Christian

How they got here: This section is much easier to write for the BCS games. Wisconsin was one of the three teams tied atop the Big 10 at 11-1. They're the highest ranked team in the Big 10, meaning that they got their berth to the Rose Bowl the second that the final BCS standings were released. TCU got an automatic berth by virtue of being a non-AQ team ranked in the top 12. TCU hasn't lost a regular season game since November of 2008, but they weren't a football power in 1960, so they don't get a shot at the title. At least they're headed to the Big East in 2012, which should help alleviate some of the controversy TCU seems to generate.

Should I watch this game: Obviously. This is the only real headline game between a non-AQ team and a big name college team. All the others (Air Force/Georgia Tech, ECU/Maryland, Georgia/UCF, Nevada/Boston College) are footnote bowls at best. And they have a weirdly high number of ACC teams...Any hoo, this game will provide us all with some nifty water cooler talk. Or pew talk, since they're playing on a Saturday and you'll likely have to cut through layers of caked on NFL-talk if you wait until Monday to discuss this with co-workers. This looks to be a good one, with Wisconsin's powerful run offense going against a fast (but small) TCU defense. We'll see if TCU's amazing (seriously, under 12 points against per game?!) stats were inflated by playing inferior foes, or if the Horned Frogs were cheated by the lack of a playoff. (Blatant pandering to blogger's alma mater follows: Be sure to catch the Rose Parade in the morning, as the Western Carolina University Band will be playing in said parade. Hey, it's pretty much all we have here in the mountains, and how many opportunities will I have to pimp WCU to a national audience?)

Blogger's pick: TCU, on one condition: that the game is close. This is sort of a stupid statement, but here's my "rules o' the game:" If the final margin is 7 points or less, it's a TCU win. If the final margin is anything more than 7, then Wisconsin won. Furthermore, if Wisconsin wins, I'd put money that it's by at least 20. I, however, am thinking it'll be a close game, which would lead to a TCU win. Hooray, circular logic!

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Connecticut vs. #7 Oklahoma

How they got here: By winning their conferences. UConn won the Big East, which was this season's equivalent of winning a shoving match between the members of a high school Chess Club (OK, Spanish Club, the MAC would be the chess club). Oklahoma took home another Big 12 championship, their 4th in the last 5 seasons. Oklahoma nearly lost several games (they've won 6 games by 8 points or fewer), but the important bit is that they only dropped 2 games, both of which they lost to fairly good teams.

Should I watch this game: For at least the first half, yes. Like most people, I expect UConn to get ripped to shreds in this game. If they're still in it at the half, then this game might just be worth watching. After all, as many pundits have pointed out, Oklahoma has been favored heavily in the Fiesta Bowl before. How'd that turn out again? Oh, wait, I found a picture from that game:

So, you know, anything could happen, even if the likelihood doesn't seem great.

By the way, if you live out there you may as well go to the game. Upper-level tickets are currently selling for about $14. Sideline seats are selling for $75. UConn's sold about 1/4th of their tickets as of midnight on December 29th, meaning that they have about 3 days to sell 13,000 tickets. So if you live in Arizona, Utah, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, or west Texas, take a road trip! You'll spend more on gas than on the tickets, and you'll get to go to a BCS bowl.

Blogger's pick: Oklahoma, for reasons which should be painfully obvious. UConn does have the advantage on the ground, but Oklahoma's pass attack could very easily rip the Huskies for 400+ yards. It is extremely difficult to give UConn a fighting chance, and I would hardly be surprised if this game is over at the half. Best of luck to UConn, and I sincerely hope they make it a game, but I just don't see it happening. The Sooners win this one going away.

There's my predictions for the new year. I hope you all had a great 2010, and I hope 2011 is even better! (PS: Bowl picks are at 7-4 as of December 29. Thanks, Missouri.)

Bowl Preview, 2010: Week 2

As we roll into the second week of bowl season, take heart! Some of the games which take place between the 26th and 31st actually feature teams you might have heard of! Now, you might be wondering, "Bones, why aren't you doing the January 1st bowls? Are they not technically a part of the second week of bowl games?" Yes, they are, but there's 6 games on that particular day. Since I already have 15 games to preview here (plus a week 1 review to write sometime), it's in everyone's best interests that January 1 be given its own blog entry. Now, let's get week 2 rolling with what could be the single worst bowl of the postseason!

December 26, 2010

Little Caesar's Bowl

Florida International vs. Toledo

How they got here: Florida International holds the distinction of being the "best" team in the Sun Belt. That's something like being the best hockey player in Brazil. I understand that the Sun Belt has its own set of issues, but is there any reason that a 6-6 team should be the conference champion? That's a major argument against having a playoff featuring all the conference champions. On the other side of the ball, Toledo went 7-1 in the MAC, but they were slaughtered by Northern Illinois in their only conference loss. Outside the conference, Toledo went 1-3 with one win over Purdue and losses to Arizona, Wyoming, and Boise State. In other words: don't let the 8-4 record fool you, Toledo is just about as mediocre as FIU.

Should I watch this game: No. It'll be the day after Christmas. You can take back some bad gifts you got, or travel back to your house in the big post-Christmas rush. What you should not do is spend your Sunday night watching a game between two mid-level teams. Unless, of course, you actually care about those mid-level teams, in which case you have my apologies for all of the bile I'm spewing onto the Internet. Cheering for Toledo is punishment enough, I imagine. Oh, and the game's in Detroit, which should provide further inspiration not to watch this game.

Blogger's Pick: Toledo. They beat a mediocre major conference team, as opposed to FIU, which did not beat their mediocre major conference foe (Rutgers). Stats look to favor the Golden Panthers, but that might be because their conference is slightly worse than Toledo's. Either way, take this pick as a shot in the deep darkness, because I haven't seen either of these teams play this season.

December 27, 2010

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Air Force vs. Georgia Tech

How they got here: Air Force arrives in this game tied for 3rd in the Mountain West. They, like everyone else in conference, were slaughtered by TCU, but they kept the games with Utah and San Diego State interesting. Factor in the fact that Air Force was quite close to beating Oklahoma, and you have the story of a team coming off of a pretty good season (further, factor in that Air Force is a service academy, making these accomplishments all the more meaningful). Georgia Tech, meanwhile, fell hard from their perch atop the ACC. The Yellow Jackets scraped their way into the postseason with a November win over Duke, which is good for them since they lost 4 of their last 5 games. Georgia Tech hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since September 18, when they topped UNC. In short, it was a disappointing year for the Yellow Jackets, especially when you consider their level of competition.

Should I watch this bowl: That depends entirely on how you feel about the option. This game features two of the top 3 rushing teams in the nation. Both squads run the triple option offense, which also explains why they're both in the bottom 5 nationally in terms of passing offense. So if you like rushing football, fairly quick and low scoring games, you're in luck! Both these teams' defenses practice against the triple option, which should make for a good game. If you like pretty, pass-intensive, high-scoring football with good-looking quarterbacks who have nice hair, then this isn't the game for you. Also, you're probably a communist.

Blogger's Pick: Air Force. The Mountain West may not be an AQ superpowered conference, but their top half is at least alright. Air Force is 10 points away from an 11-1 season. Georgia Tech really only has one thing in its favor: Air Force's run defense is much worse than Georgia Tech's. I don't think that'll be enough given the extra practice time.

December 28, 2010

Champs Sports Bowl

#22 West Virginia vs. NC State

How they got here: NC State had a very good run to start the year before blowing a game they should have won against Virginia Tech. After that loss, the year was decidedly mediocre for the Wolfpack and they went 4-3 in their last 7 games. West Virginia actually had the best record of any team in the Big East, but they finished with the same conference record as UConn and Pitt. Their loss to UConn was what sunk them, but they finished 9-3. That'd be more remarkable and more respectable if they played in a conference that wasn't the Big East.

Should I watch this game: Eh, go ahead. Might ease the pain of being back at work after your Christmas break. This game may as well be called the "we shoulda" bowl. A few twists and turns in the right direction and you'd be seeing these two match up in the Orange Bowl. As it stands, this will be a distracting little sideshow.

Blogger's Pick: NC State in a low scoring game. This game should come down to a matchup between NC State's passing attack and West Virginia's 11th ranked pass defense. I'll give the edge to NC State for two reasons: 1, they played in a (marginally) tougher conference and 2, as a Virginia Tech fan I'm required to hate West Virginia. No, it isn't a valid reason. But if you read my writing for valid reasons, then you're probably misguided as is.

Insight Bowl

#12 Missouri vs. Iowa

How they got here: Missouri had two bad weeks, which cost them the BCS and the Big 12 title. Especially harmful was their loss to Texas Tech, wherein the Tigers blew a 17-3 lead to finish up with a 24-17 loss. Mizzou got no chance to go to the Big 12 Championship, which pretty much sank their hopes for a BCS bowl. Remember, only conferences and teams with unnecessarily high preseason rankings get to send non-champions to BCS bowls!

Oh, and Iowa got to go to this game by finishing 4th in the Big 10. Once it became apparent that they weren't going to finish in first in the conference, the Hawkeyes mailed in the last half of the season, losing their last 3 games. Their 4-4 conference record is nothing to crow about, and you have to wonder about the size of the gap between the top of the Big 10 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State) and the lower teams in the conference. But we can ponder that later...

Should I watch this bowl: Probably. It could give us a good barometer of how the Big 10 and Big 12 will do this bowl season. Missouri's the favored team, and if they fall (or just barely beat Iowa) then we could be looking at a very long year for the Big 12. On the flip side, if Iowa gets blown out then it won't be a good sign for the Big 10, especially when you consider that Iowa has given defeats to Michigan State, Penn State, and Michigan--all bowl-bound teams.

Blogger's pick: Missouri. The Tigers play in a much higher scoring conference than the Hawkeyes, yet their scoring defense is slightly better. Considering that a few of Iowa's offensive pieces are missing (best running back, best wideout), I think we'll see Missouri take this one by a touchdown or two.

December 29, 2010

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman

(Winner of this year's "longest bowl name" competition!)

Maryland vs. East Carolina

How they got here: Maryland had a heck of a turnaround from the '09 season, going from a 2-10 year to being 8-4 this year. Sure, the ACC isn't great (this year or last) but it's hard to scoff at a 6 game turnaround. It's also hard to believe that Maryland hired the guy responsible for the turnaround. Sure, he's the same guy responsible for the 2-10 year, but shouldn't he have been fired then? Not after turning the team around. I digress. East Carolina, meanwhile, has had a season full of fairly thrilling games, with 2 OT games and one last-second Hail Mary. ECU started much stronger than they finished, however, as they dropped 4 of their last 5 games--and most of those weren't close. Both teams, for the record, beat NC State.

Should I watch this game: Yeah, sure. ECU passes quite well (7th best in the country) and Maryland's defense is mediocre. ECU's problem will come from their defense, which is easily the worst scoring defense of any bowl team (fun stat: ECU has allowed almost 10 points more per-game than Michigan, the 2nd worst bowl-bound scoring defense.) Since Maryland is middling overall, and ECU can score well but can't defend, look for a high-scoring matchup. Mind you, you'll likely be watching this game while at work, since it's at 2:30 on a Wednesday.

Blogger's pick: Maryland. Overall mediocrity is better than an all-or-nothing approach. Plus, Maryland didn't blow a 21 point lead to NC State to go into overtime, unlike the other team in this bowl.

Texas Bowl

Illinois vs. Baylor

How they got here: Illinois arrived here by having another gloriously mediocre season. Ever since they made the Rose Bowl in '07, Illinois has been somewhere between bad and pathetic. They improved to 6-6 this season, which really says more about their last two years than I could hope to. Baylor looked like a realistic threat to take their division of the Big 12 for a while, then they remembered they were Baylor at about the same time that they hit the hard part of their schedule. Baylor has lost their last 3 coming into this game, and it's not a coincidence that 4 of their 5 losses came to the 4 currently ranked teams they played. Furthermore, they have one win over a bowl-bound team. Not a great sign.

Should I watch this game: Eh, not really. It's two mediocre teams from big conferences. You'll have already seen a much better Big 10/Big 12 matchup in the Iowa/Missouri game. If watching the 6th place teams from two slightly above average conferences appeals to you, then by all means, watch this game. Otherwise...I dunno, watch Jeopardy.

Blogger's pick: This one's a toss-up. I think Baylor wins, but I say that with no confidence. So don't bet money on this one.

Valero Alamo Bowl

#14 Oklahoma State vs. Arizona

How they got here: Oklahoma State had a pretty good season, only dropping games to the two contestants in the Big 12 Championship game: Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those losses dropped them down to this bowl game, but it's not that bad of a fate, considering. Arizona, on the other hand, started out red hot and finished on an outright skid. Sure, 2 of those losses were close, but 4 straight losses by 1 point or by 40 would have been just as devastating to the Wildcats' overall record. To be blunt, I imagine Arizona got here through geographical convenience, rather than through pure merit.

Should I watch this game: Maybe. Both sides will be scoring points a' plenty, though their defenses are both fairly pedestrian. Look for lots of passing and plenty of scoring.

Blogger's pick: Oklahoma State. This is one of 9 matchups featuring a ranked team playing an unranked team. Doesn't bowl season exist precisely to prevent games like that? Even on the off chance that all 9 of those games end with the unranked team taking the win, it still doesn't solve the problem, because that means that the rankings were inaccurate. Either way...pure silliness. Oh, and Oklahoma State's offense is better, I think, hence the pick.

December 30, 2010

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Army vs. Southern Methodist

How they got here: Army got here by winning 6 games against...well, no one. They've beaten 0 bowl bound teams, and the 6 teams they've beaten have a combined 18 wins. For those who might be bad at math, that's an average of 3 wins per team. Army made it to bowl eligibility by beating some very bad teams. The Black Knights haven't been to a bowl since '96, though, so that's some good news for them. SMU continues their comeback from the dead (a phrase that is probably the most overused thing in reference to any one team in the history of college football) by making their second straight bowl game. The Mustangs weren't exactly world beaters, finishing 7-6 with their loss in the conference championship game. Hence their presence in this fairly obscure little bowl.

Should I watch this game: Sure, if only because of the contrasting styles of offense. Army has literally the worst passing attack in the country, 120th out of 120, to go with their top 10 rushing attack. SMU is coached by June Jones, meaning that they throw the ball...a lot. Army's pass defense and SMU's run defense are both in the top 50 in their respective categories, meaning that we might see a close one in this game.

Blogger's pick: SMU. The game should be close, if only because Army will kill clock with their run attack, but I don't think that they'll keep up with SMU. Especially since the Mustangs are bowl eligible, and beating them would mean that Army would defeat their first bowl-bound team this season. Given that they had 4 other chances to beat bowl teams, I don't like their odds in this one...

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Kansas State vs. Syracuse

How they got here: Kansas State's biggest achievement was taking Texas to task back in November. The Wildcats only beat one bowl team (Central Florida), and finished a distant 3rd in the Big 12 North division. But, hey, at least they made a bowl, the first time they've been bowling since '06. Syracuse is in a similar situation: the Orange didn't really beat anyone good (does West Virginia count?), but they at least made a bowl for the first time since 2004. Sure, their path there included 2 wins over 1-AA teams (they're 5-5 against other 1-A teams). So (and I know I've used this phrase a lot in this bowl writeup) look for a battle of mediocre teams!

Should I watch this game: Only if there's nothing else on. Ostensibly the matchup between Syracuse's defense and K-State's offense should be a good one, but both these teams have beaten no one, so it's really impossible to say just how good of a game this'll be. Honestly, this game is as much of a mystery to me as the Ohio/Troy game was. Oh, but if you're into baseball and hate the Yankees as much as I do, you can pretend how nice it would be if Yankee Stadium double booked this game with an exhibition game for the Yankees and Derek Jeter got run over by a linebacker. That's about it.

Blogger's pick: Syracuse, based solely on their victory over a ranked team. Seriously, that's it.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

North Carolina vs. Tennessee

How they got here: Carolina got here by having about half of its defense suspended to start the season. Had those players been able to play, methinks we'd see Carolina a bit later in the bowl season, possibly even in the Orange Bowl. As it stands, the Tar Heels had a pretty rough year, with their coach's future in limbo after dual recruiting and academic scandals. Tennessee had a pretty big turnaround after their 2-6 start. Yes, most of that turnaround came against the worst teams on the schedule, but the Volunteers can rest easy that they still are better than Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

Should I watch this game: Pretty much copy/paste what I wrote about the Syracuse/K-State game above. This game should be fairly close (after all, both teams' best games this year came in narrow losses to LSU--UNC's because of suspensions and Tennessee's because they can't count), but I can't claim that it'll be great football. Heck, both squads probably have more draft choices on the roster than Virginia Tech or Boise State or TCU, if you're into that whole "college football is a meat farm for the pros" mentality. Otherwise, this game (like the others on this particular day) should serve as something of an appetizer for the much better slate of games on the 31st and 1st.

Blogger's pick: North Carolina. The Tar Heels' defense is much better than those of the teams which Tennessee has beaten, meaning that the Volunteers will likely find it tough to get a sniff of the end zone. Key word there: "likely."

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

#18 Nebraska vs. Washington

How they got here: Nebraska was sent to this game due to two inexcusable losses (most notably to Texas) and a defeat in the Big 12 Championship. On the bright side, the Huskers did win 10 games this season, and one of those was against Washington. Washington got to go to this bowl after a fairly disappointing season. Jake Locker failed to live up to his Heisman hype (admittedly more his receivers and O-line's fault) and the rest of the team foundered along with him.

Should I watch this game: Probably not. It'll be late on the East Coast, and those of you on the West Coast can watch this nifty highlight package from the first Nebraska/Washington game. I know the old expression about how difficult it is to beat the same team twice, but it's hard to say that this game will be radically different than the 56-21 beatdown in Seattle...

Blogger's pick: Nebraska. No reason to go against established trends, the only real risk here is Nebraska failing to get psyched for the game. Given Bo Pelini's penchant for yelling, I'm pretty sure that's a small risk.

December 31, 2010

Meineke Car Care Bowl

South Florida vs. Clemson

How they got here: Both teams got here by having incredibly average seasons. Clemson went .500, giving Auburn its best game of the year, but losing badly at home to rival South Carolina. South Florida gave Big East champions UConn a good game, but got thumped by West Virginia. At least the Bulls beat Miami, something Clemson failed to do.

Should I watch this game: This one falls into the same category as the Music City Bowl and Pinstripe Bowl--two mid-level teams from AQ conferences. Mind you, this game is between a Big East team and an ACC team, thus reducing the national interest to a comfortable low. Sure, watch the game if you like good defense: both teams rank in the top 20 in points scored against them, so it should at least be a close game.

Blogger's pick: South Florida. They beat Miami, which is the difference between their 7-5 record and Clemson's 6-6 record, which is good enough to give them the nod.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Miami (Florida) vs. Notre Dame

How they got here: These teams got here by imagining that they're still nationally relevant. Seriously, the last time this many delusional people got together was at the '08 Convention for the Criminally Insane. (While fictional, I imagine that event was far more interesting than this Sun Bowl will be.) These two franchises have gone through 4 coaches since 2004, with each team on their 3rd coach in 6 seasons. Those other coaches' crimes consisted of not winning national titles (or just not winning in Charlie Weis's case). Miami went 7-5 without a single win over a ranked team, and they'll be playing with an interim coach. Notre Dame was better this season, but they weren't exactly world beaters at 7-5.

Should I watch this game: No, as a protest. Because whoever wins this game will be declared as being "back" by the ignoramuses in the sports media. (See also: Notre Dame winning the 2008 Hawaii Bowl and being declared competitors for the '09 title by sports commentators not named Lou Holtz.) And you don't want that and I don't want that. So just watch the 3rd or 4th quarter of the Car Care Bowl and prepare for the start of the Liberty Bowl.

Blogger's pick: Call it Notre Dame, based on their wins over Utah and Southern Cal. Not much confidence in that pick, but I also don't have much confidence in Miami's interim coach.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Georgia vs. #25 Central Florida

How they got here: Georgia recovered from their awful start to crawl their way back to 6-6. Central Florida won Conference USA, thus earning the right to play a middling SEC team in their bowl game. I understand making lesser conference champions play lower level teams, but a 6-6 SEC school? That's ridiculous! And a little sad.

Should I watch this game: Sure. Should be a reasonably good matchup, when you consider that both teams score almost the same number of points, and each allows the same number of points. Georgia passes much better than Central Florida, but UCF's run offense is much better than Georgia's. Both teams struggle a bit against the other's strength, meaning that we could see each squad score 30 points or more.

Blogger's pick: Georgia. They've been tempered by games against better competition, which should prepare them for adversity, should they encounter it in this game. Yeah, we'll go with that.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl

#20 South Carolina vs. #23 Florida State

How they got here: Both teams had decent seasons in the weaker divisions of their respective conferences (well, an argument can be made about that in Florida State's case). Both teams went to their respective conference championship games, where South Carolina was blown out by Auburn and Florida State was slowly taken out of the game by Virginia Tech. Each team mirrored one another fairly well this season, meaning that this could be a very good game.

Should I watch this game: Yes, for the "mirror" reason listed above. Both teams' stats and rankings are very similar to one another. Both teams also struggled against the best teams they played this year, with South Carolina's upset over Alabama as the only victory over a currently ranked team for either school. This one should be a good game, provided that neither team rolls over and dies when faced with a halfway decent opponent.

Blogger's pick: Florida State in a close one. I think the hangover of getting destroyed in the SEC Championship will make South Carolina come out flat, leading to an early lead which Florida State exploits to a win.

That's all for week two! In case you were wondering, I'm currently at 5-2 after week one. So no Ottoman Empire posts yet.